MLB DFS DAILY BREAKDOWN – 7/5/2023

We have a nice 11  game slate on tap for tonight!!  The only game with potential weather is the TOR/CHW game!! Let’s dive into the MLB DFS Daily Breakdown!

MLB DFS DAILY BREAKDOWN
Jun 30, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Minnesota Twins pitcher Pablo Lopez (49) delivers in the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

5 Pitchers to consider on this slate: 

  1. Justin Steele – 10.3DK – Should come in lower owned here as people will be spending on Lopez and the mid 8K folks more. I have been attacking the Brewers with lefties all season and will continue to here. Over the last 5 weeks, Steele has a 3.19xFIP, 25% strikeout rate and a 4% walk rate. Like him a lot here.
  2. Pablo Lopez – 10.1DK – Not much is needed to be said here. A pitcher against the woeful Royals. Lopez is also at home here which is always a plus. Over the last 5 weeks Lopez has a 3.14XFIP, 29% strikeout rate and a 6 % walk rate. KC has struck out the 5th most versus righties over the last 2 weeks and been a bottom 5 offense.
  3. Jose Berrios – 9.2DK – Has been really solid over the last month. He has a 4.2xFIP, 23% strikeout rate and a 6% walk rate. Matchup could be a little better here, but I like the recent form here and will be taking shots tonight.
  4. Michael Soroka – 6.7DK – He is my favorite cheap pitcher on this slate going against the powerless Guardians. He got up to 98 pitches in his last outing and looked awesome with 7 ks in 6 innings.
  5. Tommy Milone – 4.0DK – Just a pure PUNT GPP play. I will always have interest in a stone minimum pitcher that is fully stretched out. He went 86 pitches in his last aaa start. The matchup here isn’t terrible against the Giants either.
Jul 3, 2023; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Nationals third baseman Jeimer Candelario (9) is congratulated by first baseman Dominic Smith (22) after hitting a solo home run against the Cincinnati Reds during the fourth inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

5 Stacks to consider on this slate:

  1. Atlanta Braves – Another slate and another opportunity to stack the BEST team in Major League Baseball!! Also a large slate and a ton of great hitting spots, which should help keep their ownership in check outside of maybe Acuna and Ozzie. The lefties of Olson, Albies, Harris, Rosario are the priorities here.
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers –  They have the highest implied total on the slate at 5.7. Bido has been decent though and I much prefer the Braves. I will be underweight here. 
  3. Chicago Cubs – Absolutely LOVE the Cubbies here in Milwaukee against Houser. Over the last 5 weeks, he is allowing a enormous 4.3 HR/9, 200 ISO and a 388 WOBA versus left-handed hitters. Tauchman, Happ, Bellinger, Young and Barnhart are the priorities here.
  4. New York Mets – Tommy Henry is atrocious. Over the last month, he is allowing a 218 ISO, 398 WOBA and 47% HC versus RHH. Pham, Lindor and Marte are the primary targets here.
  5. Washington Nationals – Asscraft is CHEEKS!! He has the highest xFIP on the slate at 5.66. He also has the highest HR/9 on the slate at 3.12 HR/9 overall. He has been especially bad versus lefties as he is allowing a gigantic 400 ISO and 540 WOBA versus lefties over the last month.

Thanks for checking out my MLB DFS Daily Breakdown!! UncleT an I have this article everyday Monday thru Friday!!

Stop by our MLB Playbook 2 hours before lock to see where we landed!! https://runpuresports.com/mlb/playbook/

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Most of my research for this article comes from https://www.fangraphs.com/

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