MLB DFS DAILY BREAKDOWN – 7/31/2023

Nice 9 game slate on tap for tonight!!  The only potential weather is in the Coors game!!!!! Let’s dive into the MLB DFS Daily Breakdown!

MLB DFS DAILY BREAKDOWN
Jul 20, 2023; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow (20) throws a pitch against the Baltimore Orioles in the first inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

5 Pitchers to consider on this slate: 

  1. Tyler Glasnow – 10.5DK – As of this writing I am seeing Glasnow as the 4th highest owned pitcher on the slate. If that holds true, I will be overweight here against the Yankees. Over the last 5 weeks, he has a 2.29 xFIP, 35% k rate and a 5% walk rate. The Yankees continue to be a bottom 5 offense over the last month.
  2. Corbin Burnes – 10.2DK – Burnes has found his old self recently. Over the last month, he has a 3.04 xFIP, 35% k rate and a 8% walk rate. I normally don’t like attacking the pesky Nationals, but Burnes is projecting to be lower owned here which gives me interest.
  3. Andrew Abbott – 10DK –  The advanced numbers say he is going to get shelled soon, but they have said that for weeks and he keeps dunking on my head. I’m sure I’ll hop onboard here and he will get blown up finally, lol.
  4. Nick Pivetta – 6.6DK – Will be a chalkier cheap option on this slate but his advanced number look awesome. Over the last 5 weeks, he has the lowest xFIP on the slate at 2.11 along with a MASSIVE 44% k rate and a 9% walk rate. Like him a ton here.
  5. Seth Lugo – 6.6DK – The Rockies just traded away Cron and Grichuk, so there will be A LOT more Ks in this lineup tonight. We just need the weather to hold off here. Over the last 5 weeks, Lugo has a 3.22 xFIP, 26% k rate and a 3% walk rate.
Jul 28, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves third baseman Austin Riley (27) and first baseman Matt Olson (28) celebrate after a victory against the Milwaukee Brewers at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

5 Stacks to consider on this slate:

  1. Atlanta Braves – Canning is allowing the highest barrell % and a top 3 AVG EV on the slate tonight. That is a receipe for disaster facing a team that has hit double the hart hit balls as any other team. He has been reverse splits this season, so ALL the bats are in play for me here. Ozuna and Riley continue to stay hot and are 2 of my favs here.
  2. San Diego Padres –  They get Austin Gomber here in Coors tonight. If the weather steers clear, they will be by far the highest owned stack on the slate. I will likely only mini stack them here.
  3. Houston Astros – Thor is coming off the IL here to make his season debut for the Guardians. O BOY!! He has been just awful over the past 2 seasons and you can swipe any bag you want off of him. Love this whole lineup but it starts with Tucker and YorDONG!!
  4. Boston Red Sox – I think Kirby will be popular tonight and I think he is a FRAUD!! He has been terrible vs lefties allowing a massive 278 ISO and 370 woba against them over the last 30 days along with a massive 58% HC. The lefties are the focus here.
  5. Milwaukee Brewers – Jake Irvin is allowing over a 200 ISO and 340 WOBA to both sides of the plate over the last month and this Nats pen is one of the worst in MLB.

Thanks for checking out my MLB DFS Daily Breakdown!! UncleT an I have this article everyday Monday thru Friday!!

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Most of my research for this article comes from https://www.fangraphs.com/

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