MLB DFS DAILY BREAKDOWN – 7/3/2023

We have a nice little 6 game slate on tap for tonight!!  I am not seeing any weather issues!! Let’s dive into the MLB DFS Daily Breakdown!

MLB DFS DAILY BREAKDOWN
Jun 22, 2023; San Francisco, California, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Blake Snell (4) throws a pitch during the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports

3 Pitchers to consider on this slate: 

  1. Joe Ryan – 10.0DK – Prime matchup here for Ryan at home against the terrible Royals. Ryan has been MUCH better at home this season as he is allowing only a 207 WOBA at home compared to a 317 WOBA on the road. Over the last 5 weeks, he has a 4.38 xFIP, 25% strikeout rate and a 3% walk rate.
  2. Blake Snell – 8.6DK – I am not quite sure why DK lowered Snell’s price by 1700 since his last start….. Simply ridiculous. Over the last 6 starts he has simply been fantastic. He has a slate low and incredible 1.83 xFIP along with a massive 44% strikeout rate and a 8% walk rate.
  3. Bryan Woo – 6.6DK – Still way too cheap for Bryan WOOOOOOOOOOO. Over the last month, he has the 2nd lowest xFIP on the slate at 3.08 along with a massive 33% strikeout rate and a 6% walk rate.
San Diego Padres left fielder Juan Soto (22) celebrates the win with San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado (13) at the conclusion of a baseball game between the San Diego Padres and the Cincinnati Reds, Saturday, July 1, 2023, at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.

3 Stacks to consider on this slate:

  1. San Diego Padres – Barria has some of the worst advanced metrics on the slate. He has a massive 7.72 xFIP vs lefties and a 3.6 HR/9 over the last month. He also has the worst xFIP vs righties over the last month at 5.89 and a 2.6 HR/9. All in spot for me tonight.
  2. Atlanta Braves –  The Braves versus a rookie who throws a fastball 65%???? This is a recipe for disaster and I’m having flashbacks to the Eury Perez start over the weekend. And I think we get them lower owned than they should be again here.
  3. Pittsburgh Pirates – We don’t have a confirmed starter for the Dodgers yet, but I am assuming its going to be Michael Grove here. He has been awful this season. He is allowing a enormous 320 ISO and 541 WOBA versus lefties over the last month and a 246 ISO and 322 WOBA vs righties.

Thanks for checking out my MLB DFS Daily Breakdown!! UncleT an I have this article everyday Monday thru Friday!!

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Most of my research for this article comes from https://www.fangraphs.com/

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