MLB DFS DAILY BREAKDOWN – 7/25/2023

ENORMOUS 12 game slate on tap for tonight!!  We need to watch the weather for the COL/WSN game and the ATL/BOS game!! Let’s dive into the MLB DFS Daily Breakdown!

MLB DFS DAILY BREAKDOWN
Jul 20, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Blake Snell (4) pitches to the Toronto Blue Jays during the first inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports

5 Pitchers to consider on this slate: 

  1. Pablo Lopez – 10.4DK – Pristine matchup for Pablo here at home against the Mariners. They have struck out the 5th most vs righties over the last 2 weeks. Pablo prolly comes in third in ownership on this slate. Over the last 5 weeks, he has a 3.27 xFIP, 32% k rate and a 7% walk rate. Like him a lot here.
  2. Blake Snell – 10.0DK – Will be the mega chalk of the slate like Darvish last night who got rocked. Outside of his last start, he has been CY Young worthy over the previous 9 starts. I wont be fading him here. The Pirates have struck out the MSOT in the league vs lefties over the last month and been the 2nd worst offense. Over the last 5 weeks, Snell has a 2.77 xFIP and a MASSIVE 37% k rate.
  3. Corbin Burnes – 9.2DK –  These top 3 pitchers will def be the 3 highest owned on this slate. Burnes is starting to look like the Burnes of old and been dominant. He is coming off b2b dominant performances against the Phillies and Reds putting up 40 DK points against both. Over the last 5 weeks, he has a massive 31% k rate and a 3.27 xFIP. Love him here.
  4. Justin Verlander – 9.1DK – Love this spot for JV against the horrendous Yankees. They have been a bottom 5 offense in all of MLB over the last month.
  5. Domingo German – 8.3DK – He has the 2nd highest swinging strike rate on the slate over the last 5 weeks at a massive 17.7%. He also has a 3.57 xFIP, 31% k rate and a 7% walk rate. I’m not scared of this mets offense.
Jul 23, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs center fielder Cody Bellinger (24) is greeted by left fielder Ian Happ (8) after hitting a two-run homer against the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

5 Stacks to consider on this slate:

  1. Chicago Cubs – These advanced numbers for Kopech over the last 5 weeks. He should be pitching at a community college or something. He has a MASSIVE 7.82 xFIP, and an incredibly high 25%!!! walk rate all while allowing a massive 2.51 HR/9. Even though I’m not thrilled to stack the cubs, i cant ignore these numbers for Kopech.
  2. Arizona Diamondbacks –  Love attacking Matz! I did use him in his last start, but absolutely LOVE the snakes here against him. Gurriel, Marte, Walker and Longoria are the priorities here. 
  3. San Diego Padres – Going right back to the Padres here against Rich Hill. This whole lineup has been smashing lefties all season. Kim, Tatis, Manny and Bog are the priorities. 
  4. Los Angeles Dodgers – Looks like we have a couple late night hammers for us this evening. Love targeting the hound with lefty heavy teams and this Dodgers team has some very powerful lefties. Freeman, Muncy, Peralta, Heyward and Outman are def the priorities.
  5. Cleveland Guardians –  I’m never thrilled to stack this team as they just dont hit that many bombs. But this spot is amazing for them. Greinke is allowing a 460 woba vs lefties over the last 30 days. Naylor, Gimenez and Jram are def my favs here.

Thanks for checking out my MLB DFS Daily Breakdown!! UncleT an I have this article everyday Monday thru Friday!!

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Most of my research for this article comes from https://www.fangraphs.com/

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