MLB DFS DAILY BREAKDOWN – 7/18/2023

We have a MASSIVE 14 game slate on tap for tonight!!  There are a few games with potential weather, but nothing that looks like doomsday!!! Let’s dive into the MLB DFS Daily Breakdown!

MLB DFS DAILY BREAKDOWN
Jul 9, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) pitches in the fourth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

5 Pitchers to consider on this slate: 

  1. Joe Musgrove – 9.6DK – Expensive pitching isn’t all that appetizing tonight. I’m out on Eovaldi vs TB, Keller is too expensive IMO and Cabrera is coming off the IL. Musgrove is my favorite option above 9k this evening. Over the last 5 weeks, he has a 3.35 xFIP, 25% k rate and a miniscule 2% walk rate. I’m still not thrilled here as I like the cheaper pitchers today, but I will leave him in my pool.
  2. Bailey Ober – 9.1DK – Another solid option here in Seattle against the Mariners. The Mariners have struck out the most in MLB this season and the most vs righties over the last month. Over the last 5 weeks, Ober has a 4.02 xFIP, 26% k rate and a 4% walk rate. The control has been excellent for him this season.
  3. Tarik Skubal – 8.4DK – Pristine matchup here for SKKKKKubal. I am a bit worried about his leash, but he should get more than the 63 P he had in his last start. Prolly around 75 would be my guess. He has looked AWESOME over his first 2 starts posting a massive 39% strikeout rate. The Royals have struck out the most in the league vs lefties over the last month and been a bottom 5 offense.
  4. Bryan Woo – 7.9DK – Not sure when DK is going to price him in the 9K range like he is supposed to be, but here we are. He will be the chalkiest pitcher on the slate yet again here against the woeful Twinkies. Over the last 5 weeks, he has a 3.47 xFIP, 29% k rate and a 6% walk rate.
  5. Carlos Carrasco – 6.2DK – Absolutely LOVE Cookie here tonight. The White Sox have struck out the 8th most over the last 2 weeks vs righties and been the dead last offense. Over the last 5 weeks, Cookie has a 4.26 xFIP, 23% k rate and a 10% walk rate. If he can control the walks here, he will put up a monster score.

Jul 14, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Rangers right fielder Adolis Garcia (53) in action during the game between the Texas Rangers and the Cleveland Guardians at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

5 Stacks to consider on this slate:

  1. Houston Astros – I’m not quite sure how to avoid the Astros tonight. Noah Davis has some of the worst advanced numbers that I have ever seen. He has a massive 7.03 xFIP, only a 9% k rate and a 12% walk rate.
  2. Atlanta Braves –  Massive 6.1 implied run total here for the Braves at home against Davies. Acuna plus the lefties are the primary targets here. Albies, Olson, Harris, Rosario.
  3. Baltimore Orioles – I don’t think Michael  Grove is good at all, and he has been awful vs lefties. Since 6/1, he has a 5.41 xFIP, 15% ks and 10% walks with a 2.3 HR/9. Henderson, Adley and Santander are the priorities here. 
  4. Texas Rangers – Taj Bradley has been getting pieced up alot lately. He has allowed 7 homers in his last 18 innings of work. and most of those homers have been against RHH. Since 6/1, he is allowing 3.1 HR/9 vs righties. Absolutely LOVE the Rangers here tonight.
  5. Cincinnati Reds – Over the last 5 weeks, Desclafani has a massive 15% barrel rate, and a 91.2 AVG EV along with a 14 degree launch angle. Those are all no bueno in the great American small park against this powerful Reds team.

Thanks for checking out my MLB DFS Daily Breakdown!! UncleT an I have this article everyday Monday thru Friday!!

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Most of my research for this article comes from https://www.fangraphs.com/

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