MLB DFS DAILY BREAKDOWN – 7/17/2023

We have a nice 10  game slate on tap for tonight!!  There are 2 games to watch the weather on. The CLE/PIT game and the SFG/CIN game. All others look ok!! Let’s dive into the MLB DFS Daily Breakdown!

MLB DFS Daily Breakdown
Jul 9, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo (44) throws a pitch against the Philadelphia Phillies during the first inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports

5 Pitchers to consider on this slate: 

  1. Logan Webb – 10.8DK – Over the last 5 weeks, Webb has been AWESOME. He is sporting a slate low 2.7 xFIP, 25% k rate and a miniscule 3% walk rate. This Cincy team has really struggled recently and the only thing that could hold back Webb here is Rain.
  2. Jesus Luzardo – 10.2DK – We don’t get to play the Marlins pitchers very often as they normally start at 640 ET. We are in for a treat today!! Over the last 5 weeks, he has a 2.97 xFIP, 31% k rate and a 5% walk rate. STL has struck out the 2nd most vs lefties over the last month. LOVE him here.
  3. Logan Gilbert – 9.8DK – Projected to be the highest owned pitcher on tonight’s slate. I have issues here. Yes, the matchup against the Twinkies is awesome as they have struck out the 2nd most vs righties over the last month. But, Gilbert only has a 19% strikeout rate over the last month along with a 4.17 xFIP. I would rather pay up with Webb or Luzardo here at lower ownership.
  4. Sonny Gray – 9.6DK – He is looking to be the 2nd highest owned pitcher on the slate today. I have issues with him as well, even though the Mariners have struck out the third most in the league vs righties over the last month. Gray has only a 21% k rate as well as a massive 11% walk rate along with a 4.15 xFIP. Like I said above, I prefer Webb and Luzardo.
  5. Nick Pivetta- 7.3DK – There arent many good cheap pitchers on this slate. Pivetta is my fav. He got up to 76 pitches in his last start at home against the A’s and now he gets to go to Oakland. Love him here.
Jul 16, 2023; Anaheim, California, USA; Los Angeles Angels designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (17) flies out in the first inning against the Houston Astros at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

5 Stacks to consider on this slate:

  1. Baltimore Orioles – Absolutely love the Orioles tonight against the rookie Emmett Sheehan. Over the last month, he is allowing a massive 77% HC, 333 ISO and a 426 WOBA vs lefties. The Lefties are def the priority plays here but also like the righties in your stacks.
  2. TB Rays –  Dane Dunning has been atrocious vs lefties over the last month allowing a massive 255 ISO, 392 WOBA and 45% HC. The Rays will likely deploy 6-7 lefties here.
  3. Los Angeles Angels – Luis Severino is straight garbage. No other way to put it. Over the last month, he is allowing a MASSIVE 273 ISO and 533!!! WOBA vs lefties. That doesn’t bode well going against SHOTIME!! He is also allowing 55% HC to BOTH sides of the plate. Love the Angels here. 
  4. Los Angeles Dodgers – Greyson Rodriguez got the call back to the bigs. Hopefully for him it goes much better than his first stint this season. In AAA, he did VERY well, but this is a tough test for him with the Dodgers. I think he gets roughed up a bit here.
  5. Washington Nationals – Drew Smyly is on the hill here for the Cubbies. I like these Nationals as they are all dirt cheap and allow for you to double spend at P pretty easy. Candy, Abrams, Thomas, Garrett and Meneses are the priorities here.

Thanks for checking out my MLB DFS Daily Breakdown!! UncleT an I have this article everyday Monday thru Friday!!

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Most of my research for this article comes from https://www.fangraphs.com/

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