MLB DFS DAILY BREAKDOWN – 6/27/2023

We have a MASSIVE 15 game slate on tap for tonight!!  The only game I think has any chance at a delay is the MIL/NYM game. Let’s dive into the MLB DFS Daily Breakdown!

MLB DFS DAILY BREAKDOWN
Jun 22, 2023; Bronx, New York, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher Bryan Woo (33) delivers a pitch against the New York Yankees during the first inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

5 Pitchers to consider on this slate: 

  1. Framber Valdez – 10.1DK – Not showing ANY ownership as of this writing on this massive slate. This dude is a quality start machine and super consistent. He is averaging 24 DK points per game this season. This STL offense has really been struggling as they have struck out the 4th most vs lefties over the last 2 weeks. They have also been a bottom 3 offense versus lefties over the last month.
  2. Taj Bradley – 9.4DK – Taj has simply been incredible over the last month. He is sporting a slate LOW 2.46 xFIP along with a colossal 35% strikeout rate. He is coming off a massive 29.7 DK point performance and a 23.6 DK the game before. While this Dbacks team has been good, I like Taj’s chances of dominating this team tonight.
  3. Tyler Wells – 8.4DK – I was shocked when I saw his last 30 days numbers. He has a 3.82 xFIP, MASSIVE 30% strikeout rate and a nice 6% walk rate. He has also been super consistent this year as he is averaging 19.1 DK points per game. I like targeting this Reds team outside their home small park.
  4. Yu Darvish – 8.1DK – Is likely the highest owned pitcher on tonight’s slate. His last 30 numbers are decent here with a 3.6 xFIP, 24% strikeout rate and a 6% walk rate. This Pit team isn’t anything to be scared of, but I typically go underweight on Darvish chalk night.
  5. Bryan Woo – 6.9DK – No clue what DK is waiting for to raise his price (he is 8900 on FD). He has the 2nd lowest xFIP on the slate and the 2nd highest strikeout rate over the last 30 days. My only hesitation is the peskiness of the Nationals, but the price is too good here.
Jun 25, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) reacts after recording his 2,000th career hit on an RBI double against the Houston Astros during the eighth inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

5 Stacks to consider on this slate:

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers – They have one of the highest implied run totals that I have ever seen in the US at a massive 7.8!!! Connor Seabold is #BAD. He is allowing over a 220 ISO and 350 WOBA to both sides of the plate this season. It’s possible that Muncy makes his return tonight as well.
  2. Texas Rangers –  MAN, what a freaking let down the Rangers had last night. Boyd left the game early and the Rangers couldn’t capitalize at all. Tonight they get a chance at redemption for us. They get Matt Manning and the more tired Tigers bullpen.
  3. Seattle Mariners – Facing Jake Irvin at home tonight in what could be a late night hammer situation. Irvin simply isn’t good and the Nats pen is one of the worst in MLB. That’s the duo we want when stacking a team!!
  4. Baltimore Orioles – Some SERIOUS regression is coming very soon for Abbott and I want to be ahead of the curve. He has a 12% walk rate and a massive 5.12 xFIP vs righties this season. He also has a slate LOW 190 babip over the last 5 weeks.
  5. San Diego Padres – They have been doing some serious damage to left-handed pitching as they have the highest wrc+ and 2nd highest ISO versus lefties in the last 30 days. Ha-DONG is red hot right now and should lead off again here tonight. Tatis, Machado, BOg and Sancez are my other favs.

Thanks for checking out my MLB DFS Daily Breakdown!! UncleT an I have this article everyday Monday thru Friday!!

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Most of my research for this article comes from https://www.fangraphs.com/

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