MLB DFS DAILY BREAKDOWN – 6/14/2023

We have a MASSIVE 12 game main slate on tap for tonight! There are no weather issues today!! Let’s dive into the MLB DFS Daily Breakdown!

Jun 8, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) delivers in the first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports

5 Pitchers to consider on this slate: 

  1. Clayton Kershaw – 10.8DK – We have seen vintage Kershaw this season, and I absolutely love it. Love watching the great continue to do their thing late in their careers! Over the last month, he has a 2.72 xFIP along with a 33% strikeout rate and a low 6% walk rate. He also has the 2nd highest swinging strike rate on the slate at 15%. I love picking on this White Sox team against good pitchers!
  2. Framber Valdez – 10.3DK – I think I prefer Kershaw straight up over him tonight, but so will most leaving FRAMGOAT underowned. He doesn’t have the strikeout rate as other top priced pitchers, but he more than makes up for that with lots of soft contact and longevity. Like him a ton here at home against the Nationals.
  3. Luis Castillo – 9.8DK – He has been a top 5 pitcher in all the MLB this season. Over the last month he has a 3.23 xFIP along with a massive 34% strikeout rate and a 5% walk rate. He also has the highest swinging strike rate on the slate at a massive 17%. Soft matchup here at home against the Marlins. LOVE HIM here. 
  4. Merrill Kelly – 9.6DK – Most will go down to Glasnow, as I think he will be the chalkiest pitcher on the slate. I have some concerns with him. He is allowing the highest EV and Barrell % on the slate over the last month at 92.5 MPH and 21.6%. He also only throws 85 pitches which caps his upside a bit. I like pivoting to Kelly here who has been incredible this season. Over the last month, he has a 3.31 xFIP, 28% strikeout rate and a 7% walk rate. I’m not really scared of this Phillies team.
  5. Ben Lively – 6.8DK – We need a cheaper pitcher to have in our pool and Lively is my favorite on the slate tonight in KC against the Royals. He is allowing less than a 280 woba to both sides of the plate since making his season debut a month ago. He has a 3.94 xFIP, 25% strikeout rate and a 6% walk rate.
Arizona Diamondbacks Corbin Carroll (7) reacts after being hit by a pitch against the Philadelphia Phillies in the first inning at Chase Field in Phoenix on June 12, 2023.

5 Stacks to consider on this slate:

  1. Boston Red Sox – I try to stay away from the Red Sox because I think their offense is very overrated. I have been stacking against Gomber in every start and I cant stop now. Dude might be the worst pitcher in all the MLB. He has an awful 5.27 xFIP over the last 30 days and is allowing over a 420 woba versus both sides of the plate. Turner and Devers are the priorities for me here.
  2. Houston Astros –  I will generally always have interest in the Houston Astros team as they have an awesome lineup top to bottom. I even like it without Alvarez in there. This is just a bad matchup for Gray as he struggles with RHB and the Astros are likely to have 7 in the lineup tonight. 
  3. Tampa Bay Rays -Should get this team low owned tonight in Oakland. He has been equally terrible against both sides of the plate. Paredes, Siri, Raley and Lowe are my favs here. 
  4. Arizona Diamondbacks – I think Ranger Suarez is straight trash and this dbacks team is going to destroy him tonight. He is allowing a 210 iso and a 398 woba versus RHH over the last 30 days. They are the focus, but don’t leave out MVP candidate Corbin Carroll.
  5. Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers started off hot last night against Lynn , but didn’t do much after the first couple of innings. I like going right back to them here at low low ownership.

Thanks for checking out my MLB DFS Daily Breakdown!! UncleT an I have this article everyday Monday thru Friday!!

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Most of my research for this article comes from https://www.fangraphs.com/

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