MLB DFS DAILY BREAKDOWN – 5/4/2022

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Wednesday night brings us a seven game slate with no expected weather issues. There are some obvious pitching options and stack choices, so getting a little different on this slate will be fairly easy. We’ll use DraftKings pricing where otherwise not noted.

Apr 23, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Dylan Bundy (37) delivers a pitch against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Five Pitchers to Consider

1. Dylan Bundy, $8,300 – The resurgent Bundy presents the best pitching value on the slate. He got dinged up a little last outing against Tampa Bay but was excellent in three starts prior to that in difficult matchups against Seattle, Boston and the White Sox. On the season he has a 29% strikeout rate against right-handed batters and he should see six of them in Baltimore’s lineup. With a dead ball and in a park that was expanded to Grand Canyon-like proportions, he is a top option.

2. Lucas Giolito, $9,500 – Gio looks to finally be stretched out after an early-season stint on the IL with an abdominal strain. His statistics in the early going are concerning with a 17% walk rate to left-handed batters and a lot of hard contact allowed to right-handed batters, but I expect that to stabilize. The Cubs have a 25% strikeout rate on the season and it will be cold but calm in Chicago this evening.

3. Freddy Peralta, $8,900 – The most volatile of Milwaukee’s talented starting pitching trio, Peralta gets a matchup against a Reds’ team that is in distress. He’s projected currently to be 50% owned and, despite the great matchup, that’s very high for a pitcher as inconsistent as Peralta.

4. Nestor Cortes, $9,900 – At first glance it would appear that “Nasty” Nestor is overpriced. But he is exactly the type of pitcher to tie up Toronto’s power right-handed bats. He carries a 36% strikeout rate to righties on the season and should face eight of them tonight. At a projected 10% ownership, The Nasty One makes for an intriguing tournament pivot off the much more highly-owned Peralta or Giolito.

5. Kyle Bradish, $5,500 – Bradish was effective if not impressive in his major-league debut against Boston last week. This is probably the pitching punt I would use if I needed to (all due respect to Austin Gomber truthers), but I really do not think it’s necessary. The Twins strike out at a 25% clip against right-handed pitching and he gets the same park advantage as Bundy in the same game.

May 3, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) watches the play from the dugout during the ninth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Five Stacks to Consider

1. New York Yankees – Expect to see Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton smile in wonder quite a bit tonight as the Yankees should have great success against Yusei Kikuchi and Toronto’s subpar middle-inning bullpen. Kikuchi is allowing 1.8 home runs per nine innings and a .426 wOBA/.293 ISO to right-handed batters. Judge, Stanton, Josh Donaldson, Gleyber Torres and Kyle Higashioka all have hard-hit rates above 60% against left-handed pitching over the last week. They will be popular but draw the best matchup on the board.

2. Colorado Rockies – They let us down last night but get a nice matchup with Patrick Corbin tonight. Colorado as a team has torched left-handed pitching, hammering to a .226 ISO and 242 wRC+ over the last week. Corbin has generously allowed 19 earned runs over his first five starts and now gets to pitch at altitude – weeeeeee!

3. Boston Red Sox – Reid Detmers may turn into a good pitcher at some point but right now he’s allowing a 40% hard-hit rate and 1.6 home runs per nine. The Red Sox are a team built to take advantage of subpar left-handed pitching.

4. Chicago White Sox – The other Sox have scuffled out of the gate but Kyle Hendricks is a perfect remedy. Hendricks on the season is allowing a wOBA above .300 and an ISO above .200 to both sides of the plate. The weather is not ideal but the Sox should put up some runs.

5. Los Angeles Dodgers – We have seen all season, including last night against Carlos Rodon, how the Dodgers grind through pitchers. It’s Alex Wood’s turn tonight and Wood is surrendering a .214 ISO to left-handed batters to go along with a .333 wOBA to righties. It’s not hard to see Mookie and Trea setting the table for some bombs by the Dodgers lefties tonight.

Come visit us at runpuresports.com – check out the playbook two hours before lock at https://runpuresports.com/mlb/playbook for more information and good luck tonight!

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