MLB Best Bets – 9/30/2022

Max Fried is 13th in the league with a 1.02 WHIP. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

New York Mets (-126) @ Atlanta Braves (+108)

Pitching in this one is Max Fried for Atlanta and Jacob deGrom for the Mets. 

Both teams needed extra innings to close out their last game. Atlanta lost in ten innings to finish their series with the Nationals, and the Mets squeezed out a 5 – 4 victory in ten against the Marlins. As a result, the Mets enter this penultimate series with a one-game lead in the division.

These two have been pacing with each other for weeks. If this were a four-game series, I would be putting all my money on a split, but we are blessed with a three-game set. The winner of this series will no doubt win the National League East.

These are two of the best pitchers in the game, and they are .500 against each other this season. Max Fried has allowed exactly two runs in six consecutive starts against New York; deGrom has allowed five total runs in his two starts against the Braves this season.

Runs will come, though, as both offenses are extremely hot. The Mets are averaging seven runs a game over their last five, and the Braves are averaging five runs in that same stretch. Given these lineups’ familiarity with the starters, there should be more runs than Vegas predicts.

Atlanta understands the severity of this series, they’re the reigning World Champion, and they know how to get it done when it matters most. So I expect they will have no issues taking the first game of this series.

Atlanta (+108) & First Five Innings: Over 3.5 Runs (+130)
Sandy Alcantara has (-3000) odds to win the NL Cy Young. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Miami Marlins (+150) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-172)

Milwaukee has made a comeback and is now just half a game back of a playoff spot. Corbin Burnes is facing off against Sandy Alcantara as the Brewers try to overtake Philly in the standings.

Neither pitcher has been at their best as we close out the season. Corbin Burnes is allowing an average of 2.9 runs over his last ten starts, with three starts where he allowed five runs. As a result, his ERA now sits a 3.11.

The Braves and Dodgers lit up Alcantara for six runs, but he should do better facing an inconsistent Milwaukee lineup.

One if not both of these pitchers will give up some runs early; it won’t be the shutdown show it would have been if these two faced back in July. I expect runs and a Miami victory as Alcantara makes the second to last start of his Cy Young year.

Miami (+150) & First Five Innings: Over 3.5 Runs (+135)

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