MLB Best Bets – 9/28/2022

Two for four yesterday isn’t ideal, but it could be far worse. There are some great options on the board today, and we’ll earn it back.

The Braves outfield was responsible for six of their eight runs last night. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Atlanta Braves (-215) @ Washington Nationals (+180)

Pitching in this one is Jake Odorizzi for the Braves and Josiah Gray for the Nationals.

Atlanta was hoping the change of scenery would help out Jake Odorizzi — it has not. He’s allowed 25 runs in eight starts with the Braves and only once has he made it through the fifth inning.

Gray has been downright terrible this season. He enters play with a 5.17 ERA, and he’s allowed 18 runs in his four starts this month. Somehow this is only his second start against the Braves this season, but Atlanta’s lineup is mashing and will look to raise that ERA even further.

First Five Innings: Over 4.5 Runs (-115)
Justin Verlander is averaging one run a start, over his last ten starts. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

Arizona Diamondbacks (+165) vs Houston Astros (-200)

Pitching in this one is Zac Gallen for the Diamondbacks and Justin Verlander for the Astros. If it weren’t for Sandy Alcantara’s historic season, this would be a matchup of the Cy Youngs.

Gallen has been unreal to close out the season. He’s allowed a total of six runs in his last three starts, and prior to that, he had six consecutive shutouts.

This is Verlander’s sixteenth season in the league and the best year of his career; he’ll finish a full season with a sub-two ERA for the first time. Houston has to be excited about the playoffs, as Verlander has struggled in postseason play before, but he’s been unhittable all season long.

With two aces on the mound, there is only one obvious play.

First Five Innings Under 2.5 Runs (+125)

Parlay of the Night

Arizona’s bullpen has been horrible this season, so while Gallen may outpitch Verlander, Houston will take over this game once Gallen exits the game. A game total of 6.5 is high as well, given the starters, so the full game under is in play as well.

Under 6.5 Runs & Houston Moneyline (+174)

 

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