MLB Best Bets – 6/12/23

Braves @ Tigers

The Braves are first in the National League with a .799 OPS. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

While baseball isn’t known for having trap games, this certainly has the feel of one. The Braves have won five of their last six, and have reclaimed best record in the National League. Now they head north to take on the lowly Tigers.

Charlie Morton is making the start for Atlanta, and Detroit still has yet to announce their starter. Despite that, the Braves are still a (-225) favorite. Bettors will have to be creative to find value in this one.

Morton has been a stud this year, which has been a massive help to the Braves, as they have sustained so many injuries to their rotation.

The Tigers are one of the better teams in the league at avoiding strikeouts, but Morton should still be locked in.

Charlie Morton Over 7.5 Ks (+115)

It’s chalky, but I expect the Braves to dominate. Their bats have been on fire, and there is no reason to expect a chance today.

First 3 Innings: Braves (-110)
Full Game: Braves -2 (+105)

Reds @ Royals

The Kansas City Royals bullpen has an ERA of 5.01. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

I touched on this game in my PrizePicks article, as I love the NRFI here.

Only twice this season has Zack Greinke allowed a first-inning run, and Luke Weaver has allowed a run in the first just once over his last six starts. These are not two studs on the mound, but they know how to take care of business in the first inning.

MGM: No Runs in the First Inning (-110)

In contrast to that play, the over is an excellent bet in this one. This game could see nine runs before the bullpens takes over. Weaver is allowing an average of four runs per five innings pitched, and while Greinke is only averaging three runs per five innings pitched, he’s coming off an outing where he gave up five to the Marlins.

Greinke is exceptionally inconsistent, and he’s either pitching a shutout or giving up a bundle.

The bullpen is the insurance, even if Greinke has a solid game, the Royals bullpen will help cash this over. Only the A’s pen puts up worse numbers.

Over 8.5 Runs (-115)


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