MLB Best Bets – 5/11/23

Padres @ Twins

Yu Darvish is allowing 2.2 runs per start. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

San Diego and Minnesota are playing their series’ third and final game. The Padres took the first game and lost in the eleventh inning last night. They will look to finish things off tonight and win the series.

The Padres enter this game averaging 4.16 runs per game and are giving up an equal average, but Yu Darvish will look to bring down their opponent’s average. He has a record of 2-2 and an ERA of 3.19. In his last start against the Dodgers, he threw for 6.2 innings, allowing just four hits and two runs.

On the other side, the Twins hold a record of 20-17, as their inconsistent offense has proven to be a problem. They average 4.24 runs per game and allow 3.65 runs on defense. Their batters are hoping to find a way to produce more consistently.

Bailey Ober will take the mound for the Twins; though he’s only made three starts, he boasts an impressive record of 2-0 and an ERA of 0.98. In his previous start, he pitched seven innings and conceded zero runs on three hits.

This game comes down to Ober, and can he continue to produce as he has? Bettors would be wise to click on his name till he gives them a reason not to.

Bailey Ober Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-105)
Bailey Ober Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-125)

This game could go either way, as both starts are capable of pitching a shutout. Instead of betting the moneyline, bettors should grab the under.

Under 8 Runs (-102)

Rays @ Yankees

Domingo German is averaging 2.7 runs per start. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The Yankees have had a shaky start to the season, but the impressive performance of Tampa has magnified New York’s struggles. The Yankees are four games above .500 but sit in last place in the AL East, eight games behind the Rays. So while it feels like Tampa never loses, if the Bronx Bombers could find a way to win this four-game series, it would significantly improve their positioning in the standings.

Today’s pitching matchup favors New York, as the one win they have against the Rays this season came the last time Domingo German and Drew Rasmussen faced off.

Rasmussen is trying to replicate the success he has had over the past couple of seasons, but he has been an all-or-nothing starter, as he has four shutouts and two starts where he allowed five runs.

German has had similar problems, but if he can dial things in, he should have a career year, which is what he needs being on a one-year prove-it contract.

Domingo German Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (+113)
Drew Rasmussen Over 5.5 Ks (+142)

Like the last game, there is no smart play on the moneyline. An edge should be given to Tampa, but smart money is on the under.

Under 8.5 Runs (+100)

 

 

 

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