This figures to be quite a good one tonight. We get Jose Berrios for the Twins going against Shane Bieber for the Indians. Current lines are very scattered but most spots have the Twins as a slight favorite at -115 with a total of 8.5. Coming off a 2-0 day yesterday, let’s look to build upon it here.
Two pitchers here with precise 180s in terms of their first start. Shane Bieber looked dominant as ever and picked up nicely from his great season last year. He fanned 14 through 6 shutout innings against KC. Now, sure KC is a free swinging bunch without much threat, but the numbers are what they are. On the other side, Jose Berrios comes off a rough road start against the White Sox giving up 5 earned through 4 innings with the big blow being a 3 run shot from Yoan Moncada. This start from Berrios was a bit of a head scratcher seeing as he looked excellent in camp. Berrios has always had huge home/road splits though and now takes the hill back in Minnesota.
Cleveland will be traveling on the road for the first time this year and they aren’t exactly walking into an ideal situation. There has been no team off to a hotter start with the bats than the Twins. Through 5 games they are 4th in runs scored with 36 which is no surprise when you look at the potency of their lineup. There are 19 teams in MLB that have played one more game than the Twins with less runs scored. The bats did begin to slow down a bit though against the Cardinals pitching and now they draw Shane Bieber who figures to keep these big bats off balance.
On the other side, the Indians have not exactly been piling on runs at 18th best in MLB. Worth noting, that they haven’t exactly seen stellar pitching through 6 games either. Giolito yesterday was the best arm they’ve seen and now they run into Berrios. This will also be the Indians 4th game in 3 nights. Little late travel night too being their first of the year, I cannot imagine helps their sluggish bats. Wouldn’t even surprise me if they rest a normal starter or two.
I approach this game in a few different ways. I cannot bet against Shane Bieber laying -115 knowing the quality we normally get from him. I also cannot back Bieber at the small dog tag with how potent that Twins lineups is. The best angle for me in this game is targeting the F5 Under 4.5 (+104) at Fanduel in NJ. Seeing a consensus of about +100, so I’ll make that the official call. I get Berrios at home in a bounce back spot against an Indians team struggling early to find consistency with their bats. On the other side, I get one of the best arms in the AL who should be able to neutralize all the Twins power. We also have two strikeout pitchers who can wiggle themselves out of jams. As for the weather, it’ll be about 80 degrees with a slight wind blowing in, so nothing crazy either way. I like the under 4.5 runs all the way to -115, but do not go higher than this.
Worth noting, that while the sample size is growing, do not forget that bankroll management is critical long term. Stay within your means and always live to fight another day. I expect to be up to full unit plays consistently as early as the start of next week. Until then though for MLB, still 0.5 units for everything. Good luck with all your bets tonight and enjoy the NBA restart. Also, be sure to check out our daily picks page to see our best bets from our entire team – https://runpurebets.com/daily-picks/
Official Play: Twins vs Indians UNDER 4.5 +100 | 0.5 units
