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Miami Dolphins (+10.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (48)
DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE
Dolphins VS PASS 12 // VS RUSH 20 // PASS 29 // RUSH 29 // OVERALL 26
Buccaneers VS PASS 21 // VS RUSH 4 // PASS 6 // RUSH 11 // OVERALL 9
The Dolphins have been in a tailspin since their week 1 win vs the Patriots. Jacoby Brissett looks to get another start this week with Tua still injured. Brissett has been serviceable in his 2 starts completing 65% of his passes. The majority of Brissett’s passes have been within 10 yards from the line of scrimmage. His main targets have been Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki. Waddle has the kind of speed to take a slant pass to the house offering that big-play upside. Gesicki has caught 15 of his 18 targets in the last 2 games for 143 yards and a touchdown. I would not look to target anyone from this backfield with the RBBC here.
Tampa Bay and Tom Brady come off a close win in Foxborough last Sunday night in a tough rainy game. The Patriots looked to confuse Tom Brady for most of the game as Bill Belichick put together a great game plan. Brady and the Bucs were able to do enough to escape with a 19 to 17 win. Mike Evans and Antonio Brown each had 7 catches and Leonard Fournette carried the ball 20 times for 91 yards. Tampa Bay has been gettable through the air and it looks like they may have lost a couple more defenders as Carlton Davis and Antoine Winfield went down last week.
I look for Tom Brady and the Bucs to have their way vs this struggling Dolphins team. Xavien Howard is one of the best DBs in the league so I look for Brady to just avoid him this week like he did Diggs when they played Dallas. If word comes out that Howard plans to shadow say Mike Evans this week, then I would look to stack up Brady with Godwin and Brown.
THE DFS GEMS
Tom Brady, TB – $7,400 on DraftKings. Brady had put up 30+ DK points in the first 3 games before the rainy conditions in NE last week. I look for the passing game to get back on track here and expect Brady to hit the 300-yard bonus and pass for 2-3 TDs.
Antonio Brown, TB – $5,200 on DraftKings. This is a great price on AB here as Brady has looked for him down the field in 2 of 3 games he has played. 7 catches on 11 targets last week.
Jaylen Waddle, MIA – $4,800 on DraftKings. Waddle has the biggest upside on this team as he can take a slant pass to the house with his speed. 25 targets in the last 3 games.
Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS
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