Betting Spread ULL -7.5 vs CC. Total 58.5.
Each day this week we have football which can be a blessing and a curse, but certainly more of a blessing. An intriguing match-up here with the yearly top team in conference in ULL vs a surprisingly good Coastal Carolina team. Let’s go over each side here and then I’ll discuss my favorite bet.
Coastal Carolina enters here 3-0 coming off a big win vs Arkansas State. The Chanticleers have not only covered both games they were a dog in, they’ve won outright. Now, Coastal figures to be a very, very chalky dog in this spot vs ULL. Here’s my biggest issue with this team. Who have they played? The combined records of teams they’ve played is 1-9. Arkansas State is prob the best of the bunch and Coastal played them off a long layoff from Covid where they appeared to catch Arkansas State with their pants down.
Coastal is lead by Freshman Greyson McCall who’s been so impressive to start the year, not just with his arm but also his legs. He’s lead this team to no less than 38 points in each of their first 3 games. He’ll face a tougher test here though with ULL. This offense has just been firing on all cylinders to start and their defense has been quite potent also, but again this is a big step up from who they’ve played thus far.
On the other side, ULL is undefeated but it hasn’t been pretty. Interesting enough, this is the easiest game of the year thus far for ULL and the toughest game of the year for Coastal Carolina based on numbers. After a huge road win vs Iowa State, this ULL squad has looked flat in two straight games. Worth noting though who they’ve played. Mind you Iowa State has won three straight since including a win vs Oklahoma. After Iowa State, this team played Georgia State and Georgia Southern. Georgia State loses to ULL and then blows out ECU. Georgia Southern has been dealing with COVID concerns early on and yet their only loss has been to ULL. All three teams ULL has beaten are those teams only losses.
The Ragin Cajuns are once again this year lead by Levi Lewis at QB and a three headed backfield which really hasn’t gotten going yet. Their defense has looked real good thus far. They’ve only given up more than 20 points to Georgia State who plays at a blazing tempo with a dual-threat QB. Could play out similar here, but at least we know Georgia State can hang up big numbers with what they did to ECU and Coastal’s pace is certainly slower than GSU.
This game here reminds me an awful lot of the Clemson/Miami game from this past weekend. We really didn’t know how good Miami was but we know what Clemson is. Coming into this one, we know what ULL is and that’s the cream of the crop in the Sun Belt. Coastal Carolina has had a good start and may be able to parlay that momentum here to a win, but at this number of 7.5, we are buying low on ULL and selling high on Coastal Carolina. I’ll lay the 7.5 here.
Worth noting that waiting may land you a better number here. Again, Coastal figure to be quite a popular bet tomorrow and truthfully dipping to 6.5 is so much more EV than if we end up waiting and getting 8.5. My play will certainly be on ULL but maybe we wait to grab 7 if it pops up.
ULL -7 vs Coastal Carolina (if 7 doesn’t open up, I’m fine with this up to 9.)