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LIONS +11.5 AT PACKERS 49

 

DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE 

LIONS VS PASS 32 // VS RUSH 27 // PASS 15 // RUSH 21 // OVERALL 29

PACKERS VS PASS 32 // VS RUSH 21 // PASS 1 // RUSH 5 // OVERALL 4

Source - Footballoutsiders.com 

 

MATCHUPS FOR SHOWDOWN

The Lions were abysmal against the pass and rush last season (32nd & 27th) and it appears they have not improved one bit. Elijah Mitchell racked up 104 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle torched their secondary for 267 yards and a touchdown on 13 receptions. Assuming the Pack show up tonight, they should have their way. 

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were a disaster last week. I am crossing that game out and it will have zero impact on how I play tonights showdown slate. If you truly believe Aaron Rodgers is punting the season, then sure, you can play that narrative and side with the Lions. However, I just don’t see it. The last time Aaron Rodgers had a performance like we saw last week was in 2020 against Tampa Bay. He followed up that performance with a 4 pass touchdown game against the Texans. Who got all of the targets in that game? Davante Adams. Adams put up an insane 13 catch, 196 yard and 2 touchdown performance. 

 

 

SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

I am running 50 builds tonight & this strategy aligns with what I am doing 

One of the first things I will do is head over to an optimizer, eliminate two players who won’t play, and I’ll run the opto. This will give you a basic outline of where the ‘projection based optimal lineup’ is at. Do not actually play this build; many do, and it will be duplicated many times over. For example, using our projections, the optimizer is spitting out a heavy amount of Packer onslaught stacks (4 to 5 Packers players vs 1 to 2 Lions). When I run 10 lineups, it is giving me 80% Aaron Jones, 60% Trinity Benson, 60% AJ Dillon, 50% Aaron Rodgers, 50% Aaron Rodgers CPT, 50% Davante Adams, & 40% Mason Crosby. 

So, how do we get different? Is a Packers onslaught the wrong route to go in showdown formats because it will be popular. . . ? It comes down to your rules and how they will impact your lineup construction. For example, the projection based optimal construction produced a high number of lineups that included AJ Dillon, Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams (QB+RB+RB2+WR1). The only way I see this being the optimal outcome is in a scenario where the Packers win in a 30-3 type of fashion, which I just don’t see happening. 

We get different by building our lineups according to a game-script we see playing out and by creating rules that align with our script. Think back to yesterdays showdown writeup with the Chiefs/Ravens. I lowered Travis Kelce & Tyreek Hills projection but increased Patrick Mahomes. My thought I outlined is that we would see Mahomes spread the ball out more. That is exactly what he did, however, I was completely wrong about Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s production and that is what ultimately sunk me in my showdown builds. 

How will tonight’s game play out? We have Aaron Rodgers in prime time coming off an embarrassing performance against the Saint’s in week one. Based on what we know about Rodgers, the most likely probable outcome is Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers ending up in the optimal lineup. This could be Adams CPT / Rodgers FLEX, Rodgers CPT / Adams FLEX, or X CPT / Adams FLEX / Rodgers FLEX. This ‘piece’ of the puzzle I feel fairly confident about. From here we can create our first rule — 

Rule 1 — Each lineup must contain Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams (Note- if you don’t want 100% Adams, the player you can make a similar rule around is Aaron Jones, instead of Adams) 

What to do about the builds where we want Rodgers & Adams both in the flex? Last season, when the Packers played the 49ers, we saw CPT Richie James + Adams + Rodgers (opWR + WR1 + QB) as the optimal winning lineup. Packers At Saints, last season, produced an Alvin Kamara CPT + Rodgers + Drew Brees (opRB + QB + opQB) as the optimal winning lineup. We also saw an opponent RB CPT in the optimal winning lineup when the Packers played the 49ers in 19′. Just looking at the pricing, the most likely CPT is Marquez Valdes-Scantling OR one of these cheap Lions WR’s (Quintez Cephus, Amon-Ra St. Brown or Kalif Raymond). For one of these WR’s to find themselves in this position, we will need a high scoring game where production is spread out. I find this outcome highly unlikely; I do want exposure to these cheap WR’s in the flex position. 

With the high number of cheap WR’s available tonight, its quite possible the Kickers go overlooked and under-owned. This is where we can get different. For example, let’s say Mason Crosby makes 3 extra points and kicks 2 40+ yard field goals. This point total is equal to Quintez Cephus snagging 3 balls for 80 yards. With this in mind, we can create our next rule — 

Rule 2 — Mason Crosby or Austin Seibert (Kickers, one or the other, not both) must be in a flex spot. (Note- I am building 50 lineups, if you are building 150, I wouldn’t lock a kicker into a flex, I’d use the min/max exposure setting to manage my kicker exposure) 

 

 

 

CAPTAIN PLAYS

  • Davante Adams, 17.7K — He will be my highest owned Captain 
  • Aaron Rodgers, 17.1K — Will be my 2nd highest owned Captain 
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling, 8.4K — I will have limited exposure to MVS at Captain 

 

FLEX PLAYS

  • Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers & Marquez Valdes-Scantling
  • Mason Crosby & Austin Seibert 
  • D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams, TJ Hockenson, Quintez Cephus, Kalif Raymond, Amon-Ra St. Brown
  • AJ Dillon, Aaron Jones, Allen Lazard, Randal Cobb (minimal exposure) 

 

 


AP’S CORE BUILDS 

  • Davante Adams CPT + Aaron Rodgers + Mason Crosby — 5.6K/Player 
  • Aaron Rodgers CPT + Davante Adams + Mason Crosby — 5.7K/Player 
  • MVS CPT + Aaron Rodgers + Davante Adams — 6.1K/Player 

 

Article produced by AP 

 

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