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Kansas City Chiefs (-7) @ Washington Football Team (55.5)
DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE
Chiefs VS PASS 31 // VS RUSH 32 // PASS 1 // RUSH 5 // OVERALL 14
Washington VS PASS 29 // VS RUSH 9 // PASS 16 // RUSH 23 // OVERALL 19
The Chiefs are shockingly 2-3 through their first 5 games, mainly due to their terrible defense. KC has given up 29+ points in every game this year putting a lot of stress and pressure on their offense to put up points at a high rate. Kansas City will need to tweak their offense as teams have been playing 2 high safeties vs them to limit the homerun threat of Tyreek Hill. I expect the Chiefs to bounce back this week and for Mahomes to rebound as he hasn’t thrown for 300+ yards in 3 straight games now. The injury to CEH will allow Darrel Williams to jump into the starting role with Jerick McKinnon expected to see passing down work.
Washington has been up and down this year entering the game with a 2-3 record. Taylor Heinicke has filled in well for the injured Fitzpatrick but will be looking to bounce back off his worst game this season. Heinicke has scored 23+ DK points in 3 of his 4 starts and now faces the worst-rated defense in the league. McLaurin has been the main target for Heinicke this season seeing 45 targets in the past 4 games. McLaurin has hit the 100-yard bonus twice and found the endzone 3 times. Ricky Seals-Jones started for the injured Thomas last week and played 82 of 83 snaps catching 5 passes on 8 targets for 41 yards. Priced only at 3K still makes him a solid value TE.
This game has the highest implied total on the board this week and will be a very popular game to stack up. I think this game lives up to the hype and shoots out as both teams have poor pass defenses and a lot of upside on the offensive side of the ball. I think we need to look to get unique with our game stacks here and my favorite GPP target is DeAndre Carter. His snaps have gone up the past 2 weeks playing on 58/83 snaps last week catching 4 passes on 8 targets for 62 yards. The 3K price tag will help you spend up in this game stack.
THE DFS GEMS
Taylor Heinicke, WASH – $5,800 on DraftKings. You could go with Mahomes here also, but I have Heinicke projected as a better pt/$ play.
Terry McLaurin, WASH – $7,100 on DraftKings. I think McLaurin has a very similar ceiling to Tyreek in this matchup and comes at a $1,400 discount.
Travis Kelce, KC – $7,000 on DraftKings. Kelce was priced in the 8Ks a couple of weeks ago and I want to jump on this discount in this great game environment.
Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS
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