Joey’s UFC Best Bet – UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis
Sergey Spivak (-250) vs. Jared Vanderaa (+200)

Sergey Spivak vs. Jared Vanderaa finally get their chance at each other, previously Vanderaa tested positive for COVID-19 back on UFC 256 causing the bout to be rescheduled. These two heavyweights both made weight and enjoyed talking a little smack before headlining the early prelims in tomorrow’s UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis. This is a bout that I highly doubt see’s the judges’ scorecards, as Spivak and Vanderaa have only had 2 each of their 13 and 15 professional fights go to the judges.

Spivak enters this contest off an impressive decision victory over the always entertaining, Carlos Felipe. He is 2-2 in the UFC and 11-2 overall. The “Polar Bear” only 26 years old is a well-oiled machine, he isn’t overpowering but throws good volume which helps setup his takedowns. Once on the ground, Sergey uses his advanced jiu-jitsu to dominate opponents leading to multiple submission victories. In his 6 submission victories, he has successfully won via Kimura, Armbar, Rear Naked Choke, Neck Crank, and Arm Triangle choke.

As for Vanderaa, this will be his first official UFC Fight past Dana White’s Contender Series. He looked very impressive in that fight a first round TKO victory over Harry Hunsucker. Past that he is 11-4 overall but doesn’t have a notable victory on his resume. He’s only beat 4 guys with winning records or with more than 5 professional fights. Jared is a guy who primary likes to stand and bang but has shown some success from top position. Thing is here – Sergey has a clear advantage in grappling and it would take something going totally wrong to see Jared in top position.

All in all – the only path of victory I see for Jared Vanderaa is the same way Walt Harris beat Sergey Spivak, push Sergey against the cage and throw multiple combination of power punches and knees. Is it right to compare Walt Harris and Jared Vanderaa, absolutely not, at least not yet. While Vanderaa is skilled on the feet he doesn’t nearly have the power of Walt Harris, never mind the overall boxing skill set.

Sergey has multiple paths to victory in this fight. He can use his range and combinations to slowly pick apart Vanderaa, while eventually getting the fight to the ground. While it’s on the ground I’d be surprised to see Vanderaa survive more than 2 minutes. In half of his professionally losses, Vanderaa has been submitted.

I’m fully expected the far superior and experienced fighter, Sergey Spivak to win this fight. More than likely he gets this fight to the ground and sinks in one of his dangerous submissions.
Since I’d rather not lay -250 on Sergey Spivak money line and I can’t see the judges getting a hold of this heavyweight bout – the play here is Sergey Spivak inside distance.
The best price available is via PointBet at (+180).

Joey’s Best Bet:
Sergey Spivak Inside the Distance +180


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