Northwest State Demons vs Houston Baptist Huskies
Betting Spread – NW State -4.5. Total 154
Watch Link – https://hbuhuskies.com/coverage
Let me start by saying, this should be a fun one. The Southland Conference is no stranger to fast paced teams with 7 teams that have an adjusted tempo which rank 80th or faster. Two of which are included here. Let’s start with Houston Baptist who is just a points goldmine on both ends.
Houston Baptist ranks as the fastest adjusted tempo in this conference and the 26th fastest in the country. As fast as they play offensively, their opponents play even faster than them on offense. In terms of defensive possession length, Houston Baptist is #1 fastest in the country in defensive possession length. Teams love to get up shots quick vs this Huskies team and they aren’t exactly slow on offense either. This Huskies team is well above average in 3 point attempts vs FG attempts and one of the best in the country in assists per field goals made. This team certainly fires from 3 and moves the ball really well on offense. They tend to live and die a bit by the 3 ball, but should have ample good looks in transition tonight. They have two guys who shoot about 46% from 3, and four guys who shoot 37% or better. Their leading scorer Pedro Castro shoots an astonishing 54.5% from 3 with decent volume. This is good for 2nd best in the entire country. Expect this team to be firing from deep during this sprint tonight. They may not be great at getting to the free throw line, but NW State is quite handsy on the defensive end. When the Huskies get to the line, they’re 2nd best in the conference at converting from there. When this Houston Baptist team has played similar based tempo teams, these games have all shot out including their previous match-up with NW State. In that game, both teams didn’t even shoot well at all, but still landed on 168 points in regulation. The pace was as much of a blaze that you’ll see in college hoops. No reason to expect any different tonight.
On the NW State side, this is another team no stranger to running with teams. Similar to HB, NW State is the 16th fastest in the country in defensive possession length. Two teams going at it that often find opposing teams jacking up shot quick into shot clocks. This likely has more to do with lack of discipline on defense. On the offense end, this team is by no means slow either ranking as the 62nd fastest adjusted tempo in all of D1. Much like HB, this NW State team also plays better offense than defense which is always something to like when betting an over. While NW State isn’t a great passing team in terms of assists per FGA, it’s not as big of a concern because HB is not good at all against preventing it. Teams almost always go above their season average in assists when they play HB. NW State does most of it’s damage inside the arc, which is great because it’s where HB is most vulnerable. NW State uses their bench more than any team in the country with almost half it’s team’s minutes coming from the bench. It’s clear this team has plenty of role players and occasionally even has 13 people enter the same game. They have 7 guys who average more than 6 ppg, so clearly sharing minutes and points all around.
You may look at this game and see two teams that only score about 70 ppg, but I look at this and see two teams who almost always give up more than 1.00 point per possession and a game that will have countless of them. There are multiple paths to this going over. Either both teams miss a lot of threes which lead to countless run outs and easy baskets or open transition looks the other way or this becomes a foul fest where free throws pile up, or these team just simply shoot well from the field. Regardless I had this number a few points off good to 156 which I’m starting to see pop in the market now. I posted last night at 154 and happy to have gotten in early.
JJ’s Best Bet
OVER 154 -115 PointsBet (released last night)