Georgetown Hoyas vs Butler Bulldogs
Betting Spread – Georgetown -1 vs Butler. Total 131.5
This is a game with two teams entering coming in two different directions. Georgetown played very competitively vs Villanova on Sunday, but then laid a complete egg vs Creighton. There are worse teams where you can lay an egg against, but the Hoyas were playing very good ball especially on the offensive end. I watched most of the game vs Creighton and while Georgetown became a bit too reliant on the 3 ball, they were getting decent looks. Even inside the paint with Qudus Wahab, but the rim had a lid on it. The 2H got even worse in what was the worst shooting performance of the season for the Hoyas. I’ll choke this up as an anomaly as now they come back home. This Hoyas team is a much better team in their own gym as is often the case with college basketball teams. Despite the lack of crowds, thee home/road splits have remained with many teams. 4 of their 5 wins have come at home and they are in a prime bounce back spot here vs Butler.
Speaking of home/road splits, Butler has 0 wins vs KenPom top 100 teams on the road. While, Georgetown just sneaks in ranked at 98th, the fact still holds relevance. Of Butler’s 7 wins, just one of them is on the road which was against Depaul. Butler comes into this after a riveting overtime win vs St. John’s who mind you who hadn’t lost since January 16th prior to that game. We know Butler will look to slow things down and play good defense, but this team lacks offensive consistency. This has been their Achilles heel all season long.
These two teams met back on January 6th in what was an 8 point victory for Butler 63-55. Georgetown lead for much of the 1H before conceding the lead late and Butler didn’t look back from there. Georgetown is usually an efficient team shooting, but also shot poorly here. They did great on the offensive glass, but had way too many turnovers. This was the same story in their recent Creighton game. I like this spot for the Hoyas to get back on track especially early. Speaking of early, Butler’s defense is often most susceptible in the 1Hs of games. They are clearly a team making good 2H adjustments, but early in the 1H of games, they’ve been conceded more good looks which has resulted in them trailing at HT often.
I had really like what I was seeing out of Georgetown recently prior to the Creighton game and I look at that game as nothing more than a road bump. The Hoyas match-up very well with the Bulldogs and have some distinct advantages. Expect Georgetown to get plenty of good looks from 3 where Georgetown shoots about 35% as a team. Butler ranks 273rd in defending the 3 ball and actually 243rd defending shots inside the arc. Butler does a great job defending the offensive glass and plays at a crawl which helps the overall look of their defense, but this team is very susceptible. Georgetown lead by Jahvon Blair and an assortment of scorers should get plenty of good looks in this game.
At first I thought this would be a good spot to back Georgetown, but it actually makes more sense to target the over. Butler has averaged 1 point per possession or greater in 3 straight games. Bo Hodges (ETSU transfer) returned 4 games ago and has been a spark for this offense. Butler has dealt with nagging injuries all year but are finally has healthy as they’ve been all season long. Their recent offense success isn’t random and it’s tough to fully gauge their season numbers. Georgetown has been a nut over team recently aside from the Creighton hiccup and expect them to at least attempt to speed Butler up here. Georgetown is also an average defense at best and I’d argue one of the softer defenses Butler has seen. Against comparable defenses (Marquette/Depaul, Butler managed to score at least 67 in all those games. Healthier weapons offensively should keep the scoring going.
This is a good bounce back spot for the Hoyas offense and what Butler’s done offensively since Hodges has returned has been a near 180 from their season thus far. I like this one over the 131.5 number.
JJ’s best bet
Georgetown vs Butler OVER 131.5