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Jaguars +8.5 @ Chiefs Total 53
DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE
Jaguars VS PASS 30th // VS RUSH 11th // PASS 6th // RUSH 20th // OVERALL 13th
Chiefs VS PASS 20th // VS RUSH 15th // PASS 1st // RUSH 9th // OVERALL 4th
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We have a rematch of a week 10 game we’re the Chiefs outlasted the Jaguars 27-17. The Chiefs finished the season 7-1 at home while the Jaguars were 4-5 on the road. When digging deeper a few things stood out for me on the Chiefs side. Five of their seven home wins were decided by 10 points or less with four of those by a field goal or less. On the offensive side they scored between 20-30 points in all 7 home wins. You think of the Chiefs as a high powered offense. Well it surely didn’t happen at home. It was the road we’re the offense shined scoring 30+ points in 7 of their games.
This game has the highest total of the four playoff games. Why, I am not sure. In 8 home games for KC the total went U53 seven times while it surpassed 50 three times (51,51 and 59). The other five games finished between 34 and 44 points. Meanwhile on the road the Jags eclipsed 53 points three times between their nine games. Two of those were against woeful pass defense of Tennessee and Detroit.
Looking back at the prior matchup KC jumped out to a 20-0 lead. Patrick Mahomes threw for 4 touchdowns. Perhaps it was sloppy play from the Chiefs that let the Jags back in. Mahomes had one interception combined with two fumbles from other Chiefs while Jacksonville played a clean game turnover wise. Time of possession was nearly equally along with number of plays with KC running one more. Two other stats that stuck out. First, the Chiefs sacked Trevor Lawrence 5 times while Mahomes never ended up on his backside. Second, Kansas City had zero penalties called against them.
So now we enter playoff football. Jacksonville has been the cinderella winning their last two games at home in dramatic fashion. Now they travel to what will be a loud and tough environment to play in. The Jags are young and it will be tough for them. If they stand a chance they need to control the game from the onset with a balanced offense trying to keep Patrick off the field. The longer they can achieve this the more confidence they gain. Unfortunately, I see the Chiefs maintaining control of the game. The Chiefs can play slow wanting to establish the run keeping their defense off the field and the opponent on. It’s imperative that Jacksonville limit their three and outs. One thing I will say is the closer the game stays it becomes an advantage for Jacksonville because I see scenarios were Doug Pederson out coaches Andy Reid. In the end I feel the shoe falls off for Jacksonville in a closer than expected game that falls under the total of 53.
On the Chiefs side how can you not like Mahomes. He spreads the ball around while putting up large numbers himself. He is definitely someone who can be played naked. After Mahomes it becomes which 1-2 players produce the big numbers, if any. Over their last two games only one player has a 20+ point game, that being Jerick McKinnon. The remaining players have all scored 12 points or less with a couple usually scoring around that twelve mark. I don’t want to try to get tricky playing a Noah Bell, Kadarius Toney or even Ju-Ju Smith Schuster. For me it will be Mahomes by himself or with either Travis Kelce or McKinnon. The latter two both have 20+ point upside while earning more touches than any of the role players for KC.
Trevor Lawrence had a solid game in week 10. My obvious concern is how does he handle the crowd early. Does Jacksonville try to establish the run early to settle him in. If it doesn’t work and he throws some bad passes how does that affect him moving forward. Playoff football is different and he is still young and inexperienced. Lawrence had a solid game in week 10. He was able to find Zay Jones and Christian Kirk often. One thing to keep in mind is Evan Engram has become much more involved with this offense than the prior game. Does he take away from the prior two. Also does Lawrence lean on veteran Marvin Jones? The one piece I will be off for the Jaguars is Trevor Etienne. I don’t think he has touchdown upside, unless he breaks a longer run, because he will be replaced on goal one situations.
THE DFS GEMS
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs-$8,000 Sentence. . . While the points might be down for KC at home he has scored slightly more fantasy points at home. Many choices on this slate at QB and with Mahomes being the highest priced we could see him in a moderately owned spot. If playing him a 30+ point performance will be needed.
Travis Kelce, Chiefs-$7,700 Sentence. . . Priced 2k more than the next TE at a position people usually spend down on should leave Kelce low owned. I would imagine when played he is with a cheap qb. Playing him with Mahomes will be different but leave you with a disgusting looking team on paper.
Evan Engram, Jags-$4,300 Sentence. . . I feel like KC is going to try to not let Christian Kirk hurt them. This should leave opportunities for Engram who is on the rise. Playing Engram as part of a mini stack in the 4 game slate with the two above will help with salary while Engram has shown some 20+ point upside.
Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS
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