HTP’s NBA Prop – New Orleans vs Minnesota Free Pick 3/11/21

Last time out there 40 point blowout last game and he still played until there were 4min left in the 4th. Finch called out the players after that unacceptable performance and told that he will tighten rotations even more with players who wants to compete. I’m expecting a somewhat better version of Wolves after this break and they are going against a perfect team to get their confidence back, at least on the offensive side.

We have extremely safe floor with KAT’s minutes and we definitely want to target his overs in a fast paced game with little defense. So many unfortunate games recently but after the new coach he averages 22pts 10.4reb and 5assists in just 32.9min. Shooting just 28.6% from 3pts and 45% overall in the last 5 with limited minutes because of foul trouble or blowouts and still averages 22pts, so the potential for bigger scoring nights is definitely there as he is at 53.2% FG and 39.5% from 3pts in his six NBA seasons. Russell and Beasley are still out and this adds 3% to already big KAT’s usage.
So we only have one game with at least 36min under Finch as he posted 26pts (1/6 3pts) 8reb 11ast line against the Bucks and Pelicans have a pretty similar defensive strategy with a big strong frontcourt.

Against Steven Adams in particular we have a 10 game sample in the last 3 seasons: 17/18 24:55min 9/13FG 21pts, 18/19 19:47min 20pts, 19/20 10:22min 6/8FG 12pts. So basically he is “owning” Adams at 1 point per minute.

You want to buy the stocks when they are at the lower price, the same is with these props overs. You want to target the lower line after some struggles, but you know the potential was there all along. I have this line at 41.5, so anything under that is favorable to go over in my opinion. Pels stopped to defend a while ago and their identity is back to a fast pace team with 240 totals. New Wolves coach wants to end this 9 game losing streak as soon as possible and it starts with a good performance from Towns.

HTP’s Best Bet
K. Anthony-Towns over 39.5 points+rebounds+assists or 29.5 points+assists -118 FD 1u


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