HTP’s NBA Prop – Grizzlies vs Bucks Pick 3/4/21

Grizzlies vs Bucks
Betting Spread – Bucks -6. Total 234

Today we have a perfect example when market overreacts to player’s recent performance. Line opened at 16.5 and after some heavy under betting it is down to 15.5pts at plus money. I will try to explain my thought process on why this line now should be profitable to bet the over.

A few games ago this line finished at 17.5 heavy juiced or even at 18.5 with plus money and everybody were jumping on the over without second thought. JV got early foul trouble and then due to blowout he only played 13min in that game against the Rockets (6pts). Last game we saw the same thing with early foul trouble, he had 3PF already at the begginning of 2nd quarter. After a cooldown he played a 7:10min stint in the 3rd and then whole 4th quarter. He still finished with 29min and for me this is a very positive sign on his minutes going forward.

After missing some time he came back on February 6th and finished the month with 17.2pts average per 27.4min. He was limited at the return and now I would say it is safe to project him in a 28-30min range. Last week we saw a 33min game on a back-to-back, so there is definitely some upside too.

Up pace spot with higher team total than usual and Bucks are letting to score 25.89pts for the center position in their last 7 games. For a comparison Rockets allows 26.10pts in their last 7, so it’s basically the same matchup points wise and everyone was betting JV over even at the juiced 17.5 line then. Today we have a 15.5pts line with plus money and that’s why I think the market overreacted.

Memphis has been quite good actually and they are 7th in the league by point differential over the last 10 games. I’m expecting this game to stay close enough for the full JV run.

HTP’s Best Bet
J. Valančiūnas over 15.5 Points -108 (FD)


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