Glock’s NBA DFS Year In Review | 22-23

What is up Run Pure Sports fam-uh-lee! It has been a great and profitable NBA DFS SZN, however, it wasn’t always the easiest path to get here. I thought I’d share with you my process and how it has changed from last year until now. My hope is that this “Year In Review” article can help you with your own process. Or, at least be an enjoyable read which will help you look forward to next season!

This article should also highlight that despite the lack of “big” screenshots from me throughout the year, if you stick to a process and have discipline with contest selection/bankroll management, you can still grind out substantial profits and be a true winner by the end of the year!

THE STORY

When I first joined RPS as a coordinator which was for the beginning of the 2021 NBA season, I was definitely struggling to find the balance between focusing on my DFS game as well as focusing on the content I provided. This came with being on shows (some days up to lock), updating playbooks/cores, and also being active in the discord answering all of your key questions. Our NBA Discord is a beast in itself and if you are familiar with the channel, it flies fast and furious up to lock so managing that while prioritizing the quality of my DFS lineups was a real challenge.

Safe to say, it was a lot all at once and something completely new to me. This ultimately resulted in a non-profitable NBA year in 2021-2022. No excuses though! At Run Pure we always find ways to get better and improve no matter what the situation is, therefore I had to refine my process to something that would work for me with my new responsibilities.

So, for the 2022-2023 season, I decided that I would change my approach from MMEing (Mass Multi Entering) AND playing 1 SE (Single Entry) Main Team to just playing 1 SE Main Team. This would allow me to focus on getting my content up early, and being able to help you all out in the Discord for as long as possible. All while making sure my DFS lineup is something that I feel confident in with the research that I put in throughout the day.

THE RESULTS

Above you can see my month-to-month results for the entire 2022-2023 NBA Season. I barely played any Showdown/Night slates during the season so my results are mostly “Classic” Main Slate based.

If you’re curious, you can also track your results for free on The Solver, here. I would highly recommend this tool as it allows you to be self-critical and analyze what areas you can improve on. Below, lets dive into what I thought helped make my year successful.

THE PROCESS

As you can see above, I had a relatively slow start to the year from October to December but started to pick up steam starting in January of 2023. February through May were all very strong months with April being my best month when it comes to ROI. (Note: my number of entries increased in April and May because I started chasing the SD $25 milly tickets which I currently have 63 of. You can see AVG BUYIN decrease due to this as well. Otherwise, I was fairly consistent with every thing else for the most part)

CONTEST SELECTION

You can see I am primarily a GPP/tournament player as that consists of most of my entries throughout the year. The satellite entries number is also fairly high due to the $25 SD Milly chase which I mentioned earlier. Each day I would I join every SE contest which was $100 and below. This includes the $100, $40, $27, $12, $5 etc. and shows that you don’t necessarily have to break the bank with entry fees if you want to be successful in DFS.

When you look at my biggest wins on the year below, they are mainly all from the $100 SE contest:

LINEUP CONSTRUCTION

Now, lets look at some of my teams that won these particular contests. See if you can spot a common pattern among them:

One thing I noticed specifically is that there is a lot of chalk in each lineup. However, there is always 1 or 2 differentiating pieces which are relatively low owned. On the left lineup, Donte DiVincenzo was a cheap unowned piece. In the middle lineup, Jusuf Nurkic was low owned in a spot we targeted all year which was bigs vs CHA. And lastly on the right lineup, Tobias Harris and Cam Johnson were a relatively low owned mini-stick which allowed me to eat the chalk in the late night hammer.

All in all, I found that not straying too far from the norm is one thing that helped me have a successful NBA year. What I mean by that is by understanding what the “optimal” lineup is for the night, you can simply make 1 or 2 pivots from that lineup and be unique enough to solo ship a small field tournament. The “optimal” lineup usually consists of all higher owned players so finding that 1 low owned piece to differentiate yourself can help lift you to the top of the leaderboards.

I understand other players have drastically different views and playstyles on this, and I am not knocking them whatsoever. I am just letting you know what worked for me this year.

TRUST THE NUMBERS

Not straying too far from the norm and trusting the numbers go hand-in-hand. Projections around the industry are getting better and better by the year so I’ve noticed that when I trust the numbers/projections, I have yielded better results. Lets say you use our projections and optimize 10 lineups without making any changes. If you don’t like any of the lineups that were generated, it is up to you to modify the projections. This way you get lineups that you do like and agree with.

There were some days I did not like what the optimizer was spitting out, and I’d lazily hand build a lineup which I thought looked good. However, in the long-term I saw that all of my biggest hits were teams that I would get in my set of lineups that were generated via an optimizer. More often times than not, I would not cash with a hand built lineup. However, I do understand there are players who are very good at this. I will just put another disclaimer that I am just letting you know what worked for me personally this year.

LATE SWAPS / PIVOTS

Lastly, another thing that also helped me salvage some min cashes were when some of my early chalk pieces failed, I late swapped off the chalk in the rest of my lineup to lower owned pieces which had upside. One example is if your lineup started with a 70% owned player, and they were injured mid-game. This would be considered a bust for DFS purposes. Most players would have given up on the night and moved on to the next day. However, if you can proactively late swap to lower owned pieces, that can help push your lineup to the min cash.

One example is if my lineup originally consisted of a 50% owned Steph Curry (who was the chalk spend up of the night) and I had the option to pivot to a 10% owned LeBron James instead in my UTIL spot, I would 100% try to do that in order to gain leverage on all the people who played that 70% owned player PLUS a 50% owned Steph Curry. If LeBron outscores Curry in that example, that will give me leverage on all of those lineups with that combination.

WRAPPING UP

I am hoping the things I discussed above was helpful in some way and can help you refine your process. I never like tooting my own horn, but I am proud of the results I’ve had this year.  Especially since the core to my main teams were posted every day this season, 7 days a week!

As always, my DMs in Discord are always open and you can talk to me freely in any channel. I’m here to help you #RunPure in any way possible as this is the best community by far! Let’s finish this NBA SZN with a BANG and keep the momentum rolling into next year!

If you are not already a member and are interested in giving RPS a shot, sign up using promo code RPS15 for 15% off your first payment!

We’ll still have plenty of content for you to finish the year including a Showdown Playbook + Cores for every game as well as BigT’s entire player pool which he always crushes to close the year! No better time than to join now!

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