If you’re new to this article here is a rundown of what I will cover and this article is more geared towards DraftKings. The goal of this article is to identify 5 of the most mispriced players on the slate (good chalk), 5 players I like that are 10% or lower owned, and 5 players you should fade or go underweight on in MME.
Misprices can be for a variety of reasons. It could be because of an injury, an issue with the DK/FD algorithm, a player stepping into a new role, etc. Usually, the guys that are most mispriced are good chalk that you want to eat in NBA DFS. You eat more chalk in NBA DFS than pretty much any other sport. Projections tend to be a lot more accurate and there is less variance than a sport like baseball. Mike Trout can go 0-4 on any given night, but Giannis Antetokounmpo isn’t going to go for 0 or 10 fantasy points unless he gets hurt.
It’s obviously not as easy as clicking optimize and print but fading good chalk can sink you in NBA DFS. You want to have pieces of your lineup that are low owned with a high ceiling. My favorite low owned guys to play are low owned studs. For example a few weeks back I was on Paul George at 6% owned and he was the highest scoring player on the slate with 75 DK points. Combining good chalk with high upside plays is one of the best ways to the top of the leaderboard in NBA. There’s no better feeling than having a late-night hammer at 5% owned that helps you climb from cashing to shipping.
Hopefully this article will help you round out your lineup with that guy who helps you to top of the leaderboard or gets you off a chalky guy you should avoid.
*Ownership will change throughout the day and may be different than when this article was written.*
- Cory Joseph / Alec Burks
I am listing Joseph and Burks here as there is a shot that the Pistons are without Killian Hayes, Jaden Ivey, and Hamidou Diallou tonight. Cade Cunningham, Saddiq Bey, and Isaiah Stewart are already out so DET’s depth is already severely compromised. Whoever starts, I would consider a true misprice and even consider the bench player based on what players are available.
- Jalen Green / Kevin Porter Jr
Listing another duo here as there is no Eric Gordon and likely no Alperen Sengun for the Rockets tonight which means the usage will fall into the laps of the young guard duo of HOU. ATL plays at one of the highest paces in the league and gives up a ton of points so there should be ample opportunity here for fantasy production.
- Jose Alvarado
CJ McCollum will be out for NOP tonight so Alvarado should be set to start once again at PG. Has always been a very productive fantasy player when he has gotten the opportunity.
- Collin Sexton
Still no Mike Conley for UTA so Sexton should start at PG and be in line for 30+ minutes if playing well. Keep in mind that Utah’s coach Will Hardy does close games with the hot hand so this could easily be a Malik Beasley write up as well.
- Anfernee Simons
Talented guards are something I always target vs the Knicks and there will be no Dame Lillard for POR so it should be full steam ahead for the AnFURNACE Simons show.
- Trae Young
One thing we’ve always discussed here at RPS is to correlate with the chalk. On the opposite side in HOU, there will be some pieces that come with ownership such as Tari Eason, KJ Martin, Jalen Green, and KPJ so I will definitely consider Ice Trae as a run back at lower ownership.
- Nikola Jokic
Looks like projection systems are still not respecting the upside Joker due to his slow start this year. He’s coming off back to back 60+ FPT performances and will be under 5% against a LAC team that should have no answer for him.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
SGA feels like a staple in these articles and will continue to be until the sites price him up accordingly. Triple double upside every time he steps onto the court.
- Zion Williamson
Keep an eye on Steven Adam’s injury news here as Zion’s matchup could get even better in his absence. Big boy is coming off of a 54.25 FPT performance in 27 mins of play and will get more opportunity to shine with CJ McCollum not in the mix.
- Anthony Davis
There is no denying the elite level AD is playing at right now. Even with Lebron potentially being back, I would think he still continues to let the big dog eat. If Lebron is out though, I’d expect AD to continue feasting at low ownership.
- DeMar DeRozan
Feel like every one who goes against OKC projects well and rightfully so. The Bulls are a team I hardly mess with though when their big 3 is healthy in Lavine, DDR, and Vuc. At 20%+ ownership, the fade is a lot easier to stomach.
- Bam Adebayo
Always a frustrating DFS roster, Bam is someone I generally look to avoid when he comes with ownership. We’ll definitely need to keep an eye on the injury status on the MIA side though as that could change things.
- Jordan Clarkson
Clarkson is in a great spot, especially without Conley, however as I mentioned above in my write up about Collin Sexton, Clarkson is competing against a lot of usage right now. The minutes will be there but Sexton, Markkanen, and Beasley are all playing at a high level. You’re fading 40+ FPTs at Clarkson’s current tag and he’s only achieved that 3 times so far this year.
- Draymond Green
Feel like Draymond has been more of a cash type play this year as he hasn’t eclipsed the 40 FPT threshold once this year which make him a lot easier to fade in GPPs.
- Nico Claxton
I’m still trying to figure out what type of role Claxton has for BKN. If it were up to me, I’d play him 30+ minutes every night but that doesn’t feel like its the case with this BKN coaching staff. Until his minutes volatility gets ironed out, he is a player I’m willing to avoid at ownership.