FREE NASCAR DFS Richmond Raceway Cup Series Breakdown, Cheat Sheet and Cash Core

Welcome to my FREE NASCAR DFS break down of today’s Cup series race from Richmond International Raceway. Richmond kicks off a stretch of 3 consecutive short track races on the schedule, each much different than the others. Richmond is not your typical short track. Normally we see a bunch of accidents and cautions when we get to the shorter tracks, but Richmond tends to be the opposite. We usually see long green flag runs and it’s probably the most boring short track we go to on the schedule. But the new car has made for some exciting racing so far. If it can make Richmond a good race, then we might really have something here! No matter how it ends up from an entertainment standpoint, we are going to try to end up with some green. Let’s get to the breakdown.

Breakdown

One thing that Richmond does have in common with the other short tracks is a TON of laps. Today we have 400 laps scheduled, which translates to about 280 dominator points up for grabs! These dominator points are going to be massive today. We have seen 12 drivers score over 80 DK points in the last 5 Richmond races, and 6 have scored over 100. All those drivers did so by scoring more than 35 dominator points, aside from Bowman who won the race last spring from SP24. More guys than just the leader will benefit from picking up dominator points. We have seen 23 guys score at least 15 Dom points in the last 5 Richmond races, that’s over 4 per race.

On the flip side of that, only 7 guys have scored more than 15 points from position differential in those same 5 races. Track position is king here, once things spread out on a long run it’s tough to gain spots unless you are good on the long run. We just don’t see a ton of guys move through the field. Only 4 times in the last 5 Richmond races has a driver who started outside the Top 20 finished inside the Top 10. Dominator upside should outweigh position differential upside when you are constructing line ups today. We want to be jamming in as many guys that can score Dom points as possible. Let’s look at some of the top recent Dom point performances at Richmond.

This highlights even more the importance of track position. All the drivers who have scored more than 25 Dom points since 2019 started 13th or higher. 12 of them started inside the Top 5.  Guys who have been fast this season, who have shown speed in practice, and who are starting towards the front are the prime candidates to dominate today. Let’s look at who I like as dominators today. Yes, it’s a big list, but with the way DK has done pricing this week you can easily play 3-4 of these guys in a line up. 3-4 Dom plays, 1-2 PD plays, and 1 value play is how I’m building tournament line ups today.

Dominator Plays

Ryan Blaney – Blaney has not been great at Richmond through the years, but he has been a Top 5 car all season. He had the best car at Phoenix and should have won had not been for his pit crew. He was fastest in every metric in practice and went out and put up the fastest lap in qualifying. Starting on the pole with his speed is a great combo for those precious dominator points. Likely going to be chalky though.

Martin Truex – With JGR’s early struggles, Truex was going to have to show me some speed in practice yesterday for me to get behind him and that’s exactly what he did. No one has been better at Richmond recently than Truex. He has won 3 of the last 5 and has scored at least 87 DK points in 4/5, and he scored 59 pts in the other. Richmond is the best place for Truex to get things rolling.

Kevin Harvick – I know it’s crazy to think of Harvick as a dominator at this point in his career, but he has that upside today. We saw him and his SHR team have a ton of speed at Phoenix.  He has 3 career Richmond wins and is averaging 25 FL in the last 5 here. Looked to have good long run speed in practice. Ton of upside for $8k.

Ross Chastain – Ross has been the fastest car for the last 4 races and he his fresh off his first win. He had a ton of speed at Phoenix this season where he turned 17 FL and finished 2nd. We didn’t get to see a ton out of his car in practice but what we did see he looked fast. $8900 seems crazy with how fast he’s been. This new car just fits Chastain’s driving style. I have a feeling he still might go under owned today.

Christopher Bell – Richmond is one of Bell’s best tracks. He has 2 top 5’s in 3 starts with a Driver Rating of 97. He has 94 FL in those 3 races… yes, 74 came in the 2nd race last year due to pitting off sequence… but still. He showed Top 5 speed in practice which backs up his success so far in his career here. Look for Bell to be a contender today.

Chase Briscoe – We didn’t get to see much from Briscoe in practice but what we did see was fast. He was also fast in qualifying putting the #14 in P4. Briscoe was dominate at Phoenix a couple weeks ago and you would expect that to translate to Richmond today.

Cheat Sheet

Below is my Cheat sheet for today’s Cup Series race from Richmond. I am relying more so on speed at Phoenix, speed in 2022, and speed in practice, more than I am relying on track history. Data reads left to right in order of importance. Guys in green are guys I like today. Drivers highlighted in purple are lower owned pivot options.

Position Differential Plays

Kyle Larson – Larson hasn’t been the dominate force he was last season but he also has not been a slouch. He looked like he had a ton of speed in practice, second only to Blaney in every category. He starts 21st so I have him as a PD play, but it’s Larson, he could very easily score you some Dom points as well. I don’t think he has that 100 point upside, but top 5 with 10 Dom points is safely in his range.

Alex Bowman – Alex won this race last year from SP24 and today he is going to try to best that from SP28. HMS cars haven’t shown much long run speed in practice outside of Larson but they have all been so strong all year that you would still expect Bowman to be able to pay off this salary from this SP. He only needs to hit top 16 for 5x value. Expect major chalk though.

Kurt Busch – Kurt broke our heart last week at COTA and we are back to the well again. Kurt starts 27th and has an even easier route to value than Bowman and had far better practice speeds than Bowman. He was 8th best in 10 lap average. Toyotas looked good in practice; Kurt should be able to find his way through the field.

Austin Dillon – Like most of the Chevy’s, Dillon was underwhelming in practice. But Richmond is one of his better tracks and we saw him run very strong at a similar track in Phoenix this year. He has an Avg finish of 10th in the last 5 races here at Richmond, and is averaging 18 FL, although he only had 6 FL in 2021. He still finished 10th and 11th in those races which would be amazing from P25 for this price. Expect a lot of ownership here.

AJ Allmendinger – Dinger is my favorite pivot off Dillon. Kaulig has been bringing fast cars each week and I love guys with extra seat time in the weekend. Dinger’s pace was better than Dillon’s in practice and he was about middle of the pack in 15 lap average. I think he will be low owned considering his upside as well.

Value Plays

Ty Dillon – Ty is my favorite value play on the slate today. He has Top 20 finishes in 5 of 6 races this season and showed top 20 speed again in practice yesterday. GMS/Petty has been building competitive cars for Jones and Dillon, and as long as Dillon can keep it clean, he should easily return value.

Corey Lajoie – Lajoie has been a victim of bad luck in a couple races this season, we never even really got to see what he had at Phoenix before he lost a wheel. This is the exact type of track I would expect Lajoie and Spire to be more competitive at and he did post the 20th best 5 lap average yesterday. He finished 21st for Spire in this race last season as well.

Bubba Wallace (FADE) – I’m fading Bubba today. He’s going to carry a ton of ownership at this starting position, and he is terrible here at Richmond. He’s finished 26th or worse in 4 of the last 5 races here and didn’t do much to impress in practice. I’ll let the field have him and take my chances.

Harrison Burton – Not a lot of options to pivot to down here but Burton showed a little speed in practice and should come in very low owned with his starting position. Not a bad pivot in tournaments.

Cash Core 4

Even though we are going heavy dominators in tournaments, that might not be the best approach for cash. Cash I’m taking my two Favs to Dominate, Truex and Blaney. Adding to them a high upside PD play in Larson and my favorite value play in Ty Dillon. I’d round this out with PD plays for cash.

Thank you all so much for reading and for all your continued support! Good luck today!

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