FREE NASCAR DFS Richmond Cup Series Breakdown, Cheat Sheet and Core Plays

Welcome to my FREE NASCAR DFS breakdown for today’s Cup Series race at Richmond Raceway. Prepare for an exciting afternoon as we take on this short track, where tire wear is a major game-changer. Races where tire wear plays a significant role always serve up a fun afternoon, with strategy playing a key role providing an afternoon of “comers and goers”.

Today, I’ll be keeping this article brief— I’m spending the weekend visiting family and friends in my home state of Ohio. Despite my packed schedule, I’ve made it a point to churn out the FREE NASCAR DFS content just for you to still provide you with the valuable insights and strategies you need to help you land in the green today! Let’s dive right in!

Breakdown

Richmond boasts a high tire wear track surface where a driver’s historical performance plays a critical role in determining their success. The records of previous races serve as reliable indicators, adding an extra dimension to our race predictions. It’s also beneficial to look at similar tracks when breaking down Richmond. Notable comparable circuits include New Hampshire, Phoenix, and Gateway. Recent triumphs at these tracks and Richmond can paint a good picture of which drivers might excel today, especially those demonstrating an aptitude for preserving their tires.

At Richmond, track position is the jewel in the crown. The ability to secure a good starting spot can significantly impact a driver’s chance of success. Long green flag runs are a common sight here, leading to the field becoming dispersed. This dispersion often makes gaining positions a steep uphill battle. Adding to the complexity of the race, passing at Richmond is notoriously tough. Drivers must demonstrate exceptional skill and strategy to navigate their way through the field to make a factor in your DFS line ups.

Speaking if DFS line ups, let’s explore scoring trends derived from the last eight Richmond races and their implications on today’s slate. A telling statistic is that nearly half (48%) of the top eight scorers originated from drivers who started within the top 10 positions, demonstrating the substantial weightage of track position in this race.

Being a 400-lap race, today’s event places a substantial emphasis on dominator points. Within the last eight races at Richmond, we’ve witnessed 32 instances where drivers earned over 20 dominator points. In the spring race, five drivers hit this dominator point benchmark, and all but one finished inside the top eight of DraftKings scoring.

Digging deeper, 26 out of these 32 strong dominator performances originated from drivers who started inside the top 10. Furthermore, drivers who started within the top five positions account for 19 of these performances and have racked up an impressive 47% of all dominator points scored in the last eight races here.

It’s interesting to note that the pole sitter has scored 20+ dominator points in five out of the eight races and has scored more than 15 dominator points in seven out of eight, with the lone exception being Bowman in the Spring. Additionally, the second-place starter has also delivered 20+ dominator points in five out of eight races and topped the scorer list three times.

Focusing on position differential, we see a contrasting picture. There have only been 12 instances of 20+ position differential points. Of these, just half landed within the top six of DraftKings scoring, and three occurred in races with no qualifying.

When targeting position differential, the mid-range appears to be the sweet spot. The last eight Richmond races have seen 35 instances of 10-20 position differential points, with 19 of these drivers finishing in the top eight of DraftKings scoring. Given this analysis, it’s clear that track position and dominator points are crucial elements to consider when creating your lineups for today’s race.

Cheat Sheet

Here’s my cheat sheet for today’s Cup Series event at Richmond, laid out for your convenience. Starting from the left, it incorporates data from all three Next Gen car races held at Richmond, in addition to data from the three races held this season at Phoenix, Richmond, and NHMS. I’ve also integrated details from yesterday’s practice session.

Please be aware that the practice session exhibited a considerable disparity in track conditions between the two groups, which greatly skewed the times. To counteract this, I’ve endeavored to normalize this factor. Consequently, the ranks you observe represent how each driver stands against their group’s average in each interval.

I’ve highlighted the drivers who I believe have promising potential today, using pink to denote drivers that could serve as less popular but rewarding alternatives.

Core Plays

Dominators (Play 2-3)

Fav Doms : Truex, Hamlin, Byron, Reddick

Fav Dom Pivots: Harvick, Elliott

Position Differential

Fav PD: Bell, Almirola, Suarez, Buescher

Fav PD Pivot: Briscoe

Value

Fav Value: Jones, McDowell

Fav Value Pivot: Burton

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