FREE NASCAR DFS Richmond Breakdown, Cheat Sheet, and Cores

April 2, 2023
By: Jason Hamlet

Welcome to my FREE NASCAR DFS breakdown for today’s race at the historic Richmond Raceway. The green flag is scheduled to wave at 3:44 PM EST, and I’m here to help nudge you on the right path as you build your DraftKings lineups today. Richmond Raceway, a 0.75-mile D-shaped oval track, is known for its long green flag runs and tire wear which can lead to strategic pit decisions. It’s technically a short track, but doesn’t really race like one. Unfortunately, rain interfered with both practice and qualifying sessions yesterday, leaving us a little blind as we head into the race. This means we’ll need to rely on past performance and historical data to make our selections. Don’t worry, though; I’m here to provide you with the insights that you need to hopefully walk away a winner when the checker flag waves.

Breakdown

Richmond Raceway is a short, flat track where tire wear plays a significant role. Driver track history at Richmond is crucial, and we can also consider performances at comparable tracks like New Hampshire, Phoenix, and Gateway to help us make our decisions today. Recent success at these tracks and at Richmond is what we’re looking for from drivers today.

Track position is paramount at Richmond, as long green-flag runs often lead to the field spreading out, making it difficult to gain positions. Passing is exceptionally hard here. In the last seven Richmond races, 46% of the top 10 scorers on DraftKings came from drivers starting inside the top 10 (32 drivers).

Today’s race features 400 laps, which puts a massive emphasis on dominator points. Over the last seven Richmond races, we’ve seen 26 instances of drivers scoring over 20 dominator points, with 23 of those coming from drivers starting inside the top 10 (87.5%). This further emphasizes the importance of starting inside the top 10. The pole sitter has scored 20+ dominator points in 5 of 7 races and more than 15 dominator points in all 7, finishing outside the top 7 in DK scoring only once. The second-place starter has also scored 20+ dominator points in 5 of 7 races and has been the top scorer in 3 of those races.

Position differential tells a different story. In contrast to dominator points, there have only been 9 instances of drivers scoring 20+ position differential points, with only six of those making it inside the top 6 of DK scoring. The mid-range is the ideal place to target position differential. The sweet spot for Richmond seems to be 10-20 position differential points, with 27 performances in this range over the last seven races and 18 of those landing inside the top 10 of DK scoring.

The graph above paints a great picture as to where your focus should be when building line ups today. Spend your money on guys that can score you dominator points, don’t make a point to jam in the PD plays. If you can get to them in your build, great, but the guys who can score dominator points have a much higher ceiling and you don’t want to be sacrificing those plays for PD plays today.

But Jason… Qualifying was rained out, how can we trust this? I’ll tell how… Three of the seven races in this sample were held under COVID-19 protocols, with the field set using a similar metric to how it was set for today’s race without qualifying. Even without P&Q in those races, we still observed the same trend play out.

Cheat Sheet

Below is my Cheat Sheet for today’s race from Richmond. I included a TON of info since we didn’t have practice. I have included Driver data from the last 7 Richmond races, as well as all races on similar tracks since the start of 2022, New Hampshire, Gateway, and Phoenix. Drivers in green are guys I like today. Drivers in purple are potentially lower owned options for GPP.

Driver Notes

William Byron – Dom Potential: Hard not to have some Byron here. Been on a tear to start the season and just smashed at Phoenix. Started 2nd in this race last year and turned it into a 3rd place finish with 47 fast laps and 64 laps led.

Kevin Harvick – Dom Potential: Tied as the odds on favorite with Byron. Should be very popular after the speed he showed at Phoenix a few weeks ago. Won here in race 2 last year while scoring 23.65 dominator points after starting 13th. This price is pretty high though and he will need a top tier performance to pay off. A performance like in this race last year where he started 9th, finished 2nd, and scored 4 Dom points is not going to cut it at this price. I don’t mind the fade or being under here in GPP for that reason.

Christopher Bell – Dom Potential: This is the beginning of my JGR love today. JGR has won 6 of the last 9 here and are responsible for 12 of the 26, 20+ Dominator performances mentioned above. You know who has 2 of those performances in his firs 2 years? Yep, Chris Bell. Short Flat tracks are where he excels, won at New Hampshire last year and finished 2nd here in race 2 last year while scoring 32 fast laps. He did that from P21, exactly where he starts today. He will be high owned though, and we talked about how hard it is to pass here.

Denny Hamlin – Dom Potential: Another JGR stud. 1 Win, 6 Top 5’s and 3 20+ Dom point performances in the last 7 Richmond races. Finished 4th and scored 21 Dom points in race # here last year. No one has a higher percentage of fast laps in our sample than Denny.

Martin Truex – Dom Potential: Let the JGR love fest continue. Truex is a STUD at Richmond and this price is way too cheap for him. Prefer him over Hamlin and he can be a pivot off Bell as well. Truex has 5 20+ dominator performances over the last 7 races here, 3 wins, the most laps led, and 7 Top 10s!

Kyle Busch: Taking a stand and not playing KFB here. RCR struggled on short flats last year and they did not show much improvement at Phoenix this season. Has been outran here by his teammates the last 3 years, hasn’t scored more than 20 Dom points here since 2019. Bell, Hamlin and Truex have combined for 8 Dom performances of 20+ in the last 3 years to KBs 0. If he couldn’t outrun them in the same equipment, how is he going to beat them in RCR short flat equipment?

Joey Logano – Dom Potential: Joey is a solid GPP option today as I think he goes overlooked. Starting 18th is not ideal and you need him to get to the front. Starting 17th here in race 2 last year did not limit him as he went on to lead 222 laps in that race. Logano has scored 20+ Dom points 4 times in the last 7 races here, once time each year since 2019.

Alex Bowman – Dom Potential: You read the stats about the pole sitters above. Clean air is king! HMS has had a ton of speed this year and Bowman has some Richmond success with a win in 2021. Has a real shot at controlling this race early and racking up some Dom points at a discounted price tag.

Ross Chastain – Dom Potential: The finishes for Ross here has not been great and for that reason I think he has a good chance at going under owned today. This makes him a perfect GPP option. He is starting up towards the front and we all know Trackhouse has speed. Last year in Race 2 he started 2nd as was able to lead 80 laps early on his way to scoring 28 Dom points. A performance like that today could be the difference maker at $8700 if he does come in low owned.

Josh Berry: Josh is great on the short flats and even better are conserving his tires. The 9 car is going to be fast enough to gain spots from where he’s starting and he provides a ton of upside. Also a lot of risk, as he does not have a ton of experience in these cars and starting in the back always carries the risk of going a lap down early.

Aric Almirola: Chalkity Chalk Chalk Chalk. Easy play here, Aric is awesome on short flats and he provides PD opportunity at a decent price. He started 32nd in race 2 here last year and went on to finish 8th. Aric probably has the lowest risk of the guys starting towards the back to go a lap down early. You know what is going to happen now that I put that in writing now don’t you?

Ty Gibbs: Ty is a great potential lower owned pivot option in this range. This will be his second coming to Richmond in a Cup car and I expect him to take a big step forward in his JGR equipment. I already talked as to how good JGR is here, the car should be more than capable of running Top 10. Gibbs does have a win here in the Xfinity series as well. Should be good enough to at least hold his track position, If some of the other guys starting in the back get trapped a lap down early, then Gibbs could end up as the difference maker.

Austin Dillon: Dillon is a another great pivot option off of the chalk Almirola and you don’t have to sacrifice a ton of PD upside. Dillon has always ran well at high tire wear tracks, and Richmond is no exception. He boasts 4 Top 10’s and an average finish of 11.43. He started 25th in this race last year and went on to finish 10th.

Ryan Preece: Preece has had a rough start to the season but if he is going to turn it around then it is going to happen on a short flat. These are the only track type he has shown any competitiveness on this season, he had a great run at the Clash, and finished 12th at Phoenix after starting 15th. Price tag makes him a bit more interesting than Almirola in my opinion. That salary saved can be put to good use up top.

Justin Haley: Justin is a nice cheap option on the slate today. He finished 21st last time here, and also finished 20th at New Hampshire and 14th at Gateway. Should be a solid value if he keeps it clean.

Harrison Burton: Burton is another cheap option that I don’t mind getting to in GPP. Should be low owned and he hasn’t been terrible here. He finished 18th in this race last year and also finished 19th at the season finale in Phoenix. Most importantly though he’s cheap.