FREE NASCAR DFS Cup Series Roval Breakdown, Cheat Sheet and Core Plays

Breakdown

Welcome to the Run Pure Sports FREE NASCAR DFS Breakdown for Today’s Race at the Charlotte Roval! Today marks a pivotal juncture in the Cup Series, as we gear up for another playoff cut-off race, ushering us into the round of 8. The points scenario, particularly surrounding those crucial transfer spots, is incredibly tight. Throw in the re-introduction of road course stage breaks, and we have a wealth of factors to contemplate while crafting our line-ups.

The reinstatement of stage breaks leaves drivers at a crossroads. They’ll have to determine whether they’re gunning for those invaluable stage points at the culmination of stages 1 and 2, or if they’re willing to sacrifice these points in favor of an advantageous track position to kick off stage 3, possibly even eyeing a race win. Fortunately for us, the strategies for the majority of drivers are fairly foreseeable. Eight drivers stand within a mere 32 points both above and below the pivotal P8 cut-off position. Anticipate all eight drivers flanking this cut-off to prioritize stage points when the chance arises. In contrast, the majority of the remaining drivers will likely be strategizing around achieving a commendable finish rather than vying for stage points.

Points Bubble

This situation isn’t novel to this year’s Roval race. This particular event has served as the cut-off race for the round of 8 in the last three seasons, granting us a historical backdrop to dissect race dynamics and the ramifications of the diverse strategies. Such strategic variations have historically allowed for multiple lead changes. Reflecting on the past three races here, there have been eight instances of drivers racking up more than 10 dominator points, but none exceeding 17. Intriguingly, of these eight instances, only three were achieved by those starting within the first three rows. Additionally, pole position drivers have had a mixed bag of results: only one managed this feat out of three attempts, and twice they’ve ended outside the Top 20 in DraftKings’ scoring. Of note, three of these dominant performances emerged from drivers starting 10th or lower, with William Byron twice making his mark from deeper than P10 in the last three races.

Furthermore, examining the last three Roval races, we’ve witnessed 20 instances of drivers accruing 10 or more position differential points, signifying that our focus should heavily lean in this direction. Out of these, 16 notched a spot within the Top 8 of DraftKings’ scoring. Remarkably, drivers with 10+ PD points constituted 66% of the Top 8 scores on DraftKings throughout the past three Charlotte Roval races.

To optimize our builds for today’s race, there are two core strategies to consider:

Dominator Points: While a plethora of drivers will get their chance at the front, no one is expected to dominate for extended periods. Look beyond just the front starters and consider drivers from various starting positions, especially those with a history of solid performance here.

Position Differential Points: Emphasize drivers with the potential for significant position gains, as they’ve historically held a strong presence in the top echelons of DraftKings’ scoring.

Cheat Sheet

Below is my cheat sheet for today’s Cup Series race from the Charlotte Roval. I have included data from all 5 Road Course races thus far in 2023, along with data from the last 3 Charlotte Roval races. Along with that ever important track history, I have included data from yesterday’s P&Q session as well. I have highlighted the salary yellow for those drivers that are on the cut-off that could potentially be point racing today to secure a spot in the round of 8. Drivers I like today are highlighted in green, while drivers highlighted in pink are those that I like that I think could potentially go under owned today.

Core Plays

Favorite Top Tier Plays: Larson, Chase, Reddick, Dinger

Top Tier Pivots: Byron, McDowell

Top tier is a fun one with a lot of routes you can go and very little likely hood of someone burying you if you miss them, so it’s a good day to get different with all the variables. The one driver with the most upside on the slate has to be Larson starting from P36. He wrecked his primary car in practice and in turn, gives us a ton of PD upside today. He might be the one driver that can bury you today if he hits his ceiling. Passing is going to be very hard today and if Larson is going to get to the front he is going to need either a perfect race, or strategy. He needs points and I highly doubt he will be in position for stage points in stage 1. Several guys he is racing with at the cut off will likely score stage 1 points, putting Larson in a position where he might end up chasing stage points in stage 2 if he gets the chance, which could bury him to start stage 3. That being said, he only needs a top 10 to score 60+ points. I will have plenty of him, but also will have some builds fading, don’t think he is an automatic lock today.

Reddick has been the best on road courses in the next gen era and he has what looks to be the fastest car in practice and starts on the pole. There is a ton to like about Reddick today and he should be very popular as the favorite. Reddick though is a other guy who will need to point race, I think it’s almost a lock he goes for the stage 1 win and points being 2 points below the cut-off to start the race today. In last year’s race, we saw mostly play off drivers go for points in stage 1 which buried them to start stage 2, many never recovered from that decision. That aspect, along with the fact that the pole sitter has busted in the last 2/3 here makes Reddick another potential spot to get different at by fading in some builds.

Chase Elliott and AJ Allmendinger to me are the 2 guys starting inside the Top 8 that I think will have themselves in a great position to lead laps at the start of stage 2 and beyond. Both of these guys can care less about those stage points and will be looking to go after the win. Both are also top tier road course drivers that have experience winning and running at the front here at the Roval.

Michael McDowell is a very similar play to Chase and the Dinger but he also offers up a little bit of PD to go with his dominator potential. McDowell has been one of the best on road courses this season. Last year’s race here saw him run inside the top 5 for the vast majority of that race before finding trouble late, and this team has gotten way better since then. Price point and upside are great here, might also go under owned with his poor practice results combined with some of the other guys priced below him.

William Byron is another guy who has no reason to points race today as he is already locked into the next round with his win at Texas. This gives him the opportunity to for go those stage points to put himself in position for another win. Solid pivot option off both Reddick or Larson as Byron gives you PD and dominator upside. Byron won the last time we were at a road course and has scored 10+ dom points in 2 of the last 3 Roval races while starting 11th and 13th respectively in those races.

Favorite Mid Tier Plays: Briscoe, Cindric, Blaney

Mid Tier Pivots: Gibbs, Logano

This range offers us some great PD plays by the way of Chase Briscoe and Austin Cindric. Both of these guys should be very popular today. Great road course drivers each with solid runs here in there history. Good price point on both and each showed solid speed in practice. I think you can play both together, but you better be getting different elsewhere.

Ryan Blaney is another guy who has shown to have an ability for navigating the Roval with Top 10’s in 4/5 career starts here which includes a win in the inaugural event here. He also is locked in to the round of 8 after his win last week so he has zero need to race for stage points. I prefer him over Buescher in this range as Buescher will NEED to go after stage points today potentially limiting his finishing upside.

It’s hard to pass on the PD in this range, which will make the duo of Logano and Gibbs go under owned today. Neither one of these guys will have to point race today which means both should leap frog 3-4 guys at the end of stage 1 when that cycles through. Track position will mean everything for a good finish here today, and both these guys should be set up with that track position to start stage 2 as long as they don’t run into trouble beforehand.

Favorite Value Tier Plays: Haley, Stenhouse, Lajoie

Haley and Stenhouse are pretty straight forward PD plays today. You could probably build line ups today without going cheaper than either of these two guys. If I had to chose between them I am going Haley. Lajoie is a cheaper option that will likely be lower owned. His upside is not as high as the other two, but he has been consistent on RC’s this season with Top 20 finishes in 4/5.

Mid Tier Pivots: Rockenfeller

Rockenfeller is an interesting lower owned value option you can target today. We have seen this #42 car be very fast the last few weeks with Hocevar in it and Rockenfeller, whom is a great road course driver, finished 19th at the Glen the last time he was in this #42 car.

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