FREE NASCAR DFS Cup Series Road America Breakdown, Cheat Sheet, Cash Core and GPP Map

Welcome to my breakdown of today’s Cup Series race from Road America. Feels good to be back in the saddle after some much needed R&R. What better way to get back in the action than to celebrate America, on America’s birthday weekend, by watching some NASCAR action at a track called Road America! Get those BBQ’s warmed up and those beers on ice and get ready for a long afternoon of left and right turns. Hopefully I can help you end up in the green and help pay off that fire work bill that you likely racked for this weekend, at least if your like me you did.

Breakdown

Road America is one of the more technical road courses that we have on the circuit. This course has 14 turns and is over 4 miles in length! You heard me right, OVER 4 MILES! The result of this massive track size is that this race is only scheduled for 65 laps to reach the total distance. A race with only 65 laps really caps the upside of scoring on DK, especially for drivers that need to depend on Dominator points to pay off a high price tag. In last years race here, the top two dom point earners scored only 11 and 6 dom points, much different than what we see on a normal week. This means we need to be more focused on finishing position and position differential in our builds today.

When we look at the top of the DK board today we see Larson and Chase priced the highest starting 1st and 3rd. Both these guys are sure to be popular given their history and speed so far on Road courses this season. They are going to be an easy fade for me though today in GPP. Their capped dominator upside and inability to score position differential is going to make their path to optimal very hard. Pit strategy normally limits the type of dominating performance that will be required for their price tag.

Attacking the PD on this slate is not going to be a secret and this slate gives us a fair amount of chalky options to sift through. Dinger, Byron, Harvick, Jones, Stenhouse, Haley and Dillon are all guys that fit that mold. All these guys are going to be great cash options but you are going to have to make stances here in GPP. I have zero interest in Stenhouse, team has been a disaster on road courses this season. Byron was not great in practice and has not ran great recently, he also has only been around the 18th best car if you look at Avg Pos on Road courses this season, so there is some justification for a fade or being under the field there in GPPs, especially since he will likely be one of the highest owned guys in the slate. One guy I would consider as a lock though in this group would be Haley from P34. He has been great this year in this Kaulig car on the road courses. Of course, if your playing a bunch of line ups then you can have shares of all these guys, just be sure to limit yourself to 2-3 in each line up so you can mix in some lower owned options into your builds.

There are also some guys in that 10-20 starting range that provide us with solid PD upside, many of whom also carry Top 5 finish upside as well. These guys will not be super low owned, but will provide solid leverage off the chalky plays above, while not sacrificing any upside. Chastain, Bell, Suarez, Logano, and Blaney are the guys in that starting range I am targeting. All 5 are solid to great road course racers, and all of them aside from Logano showed solid speed in practice. For that reason, Logano will likely be the lowest owned out of this group. Bell is the only one of the Toyotas that showed any type of speed in practice yesterday, that’s why you don’t see KFB, Hamlin, and Truex who start in this range on my list. Not a fan of their price tag with the “meh” PD they provide considering their practice speed and how terrible the organization was at Sonoma 2 weeks ago. But I do think Bell has the opportunity to provide value with a cheaper price tag than his teammates.

I know I have spent a ton of time talking about PD on the slate today, but we are not totally ignoring the front of the field either. We do have some solid plays starting inside the top 10 that are at price points that can see them pay off with a solid finish. These guys are going to be much lower owned than the other guys I’ve mentioned so far, this is where you can really get some leverage in GPPs. Briscoe, Reddick, and Cindric are all priced in the $8k range and all are capable of leading laps and winning this race today. My favorite of the three has to be Cindric. Cindric IMO is the better road course racer of the 3, his ability is going to be magnified on a track as technical as Road America. McDowell, Buescher, and Keselowski are 3 much cheaper lower owned options to target. These guys don’t have the same win equity as the other 3 starting in this range, but all have Top 10 and even Top 5 upside. Keselowski will likely be the lowest owned in this group, likely will be less than 10% owned.

Cheat Sheet

Below is my cheat sheet for today’s Cup Series race from Road America. I have included speeds form yesterday’s practice and how the Odds changed post qualifying. Stats under the blue header are combined stats from the last 9 Road course races. Stats under yellow header are just from the two road course races this season. Green header is just finishing position for each of the last 9 road course races. Drivers in green are who I like today.

Cash Core 4

Below is my Core 4 for Cash games today at Road America. Even though I don’t like Chase in GPP, I think he is fine for Cash. He might not be optimal at the end, but his road course excellence makes him a nice safe play who will be at the front barring any issues.

GPP Line Up Map

Below is the strategy I’m running with today in GPP.


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