FREE NASCAR DFS Cup Series Las Vegas Breakdown, Cheat Sheet, and Core Plays

Breakdown

Welcome to Run Pure Sports’ FREE NASCAR DFS breakdown for today’s Cup Series race from Las Vegas. Today’s breakdown is going to be a bit more concise than usual. Those who have been following me for years know that as the season winds down and the days begin to get shorter, so do my articles. The deer woods are coming to life and take up the majority of my free time and head space. Nonetheless, I will still get you set up for success in today’s DFS slate, we will just get there with fewer words today.

Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a 1.5 mile, intermediate track. Intermediate tracks are what I like to refer to as the quintessential NASCAR DFS track type. When you think NASCAR DFS strategy, the first thing that should come to mind should be dominator points and position differential points, and those are the exact types of plays we want to focus on at this track type and here at Vegas.

In the first 3 races here in the Next Gen era, we have seen seven performances of more than 20+ Dominator points. Of those seven performances, all but one of those guys finished top 2 in DK scoring. Additionally, we have seen another 9 performances by drivers of between 10-20 dominator points. Seven of those performances were good enough to land top 13 of DraftKings scoring, and four were good enough to land in the top 6.

All but two, of those 16 total dominator performances, came from drivers who started 13th or better. While drivers starting inside the Top 6 accounted for 4  out of 7 of those 20+ dominator point performances.

Top 10 DK Scorers Last 3 Vegas Races

I know what you are going to say, “But Jason… Didn’t Byron smash the field in this race in the Fall?”. Yes, he did. But even with Byron scoring 70+ dominator points in that race, the #2 and #3 scorers on DK in that race came from his HMS teammates; Larson, who scored 33 dominator points, and Bowman who scored 13. All 3 of these guys started inside the top 11.

As I touched on briefly earlier, there is no shortage of position differential points here at Vegas either. There have been 20 performances in the last 3 Vegas races of 10 or more position differential points. 17 out of 20 of those performances were good enough to land inside the top 10 of DraftKings scoring, while 7 of them were good enough to land inside the top 5. For a PD play to land inside the top 5 of DK scoring, it generally takes around 20+ PD points.

One last wrinkle today is tire issues we saw out of the Chevy camp in practice. Both Chase and Suarez lost right rear tires ~30 laps into a run. If these issues carry over to the race then we could see a decent amount of variance today through accidents and cautions shaking up strategy and the field along with it. Could be a day where the “stupid” builds end up outscoring the “smart” builds, especially if we get a caution in the closing laps that leads to restart chaos.

Cheat Sheet

Below is my Cheat Sheet for today’s Cup Series race from Las Vegas. I have included the combined data from the 6 2023 races at Michigan, Kansas, Pocono, Las Vegas, and Nashville. I have also included data from the 3 Las Vegas races in the Next Gen era, as well as data from yesterday’s P&Q session. Finally, I included a snapshot of Avg running position across the last 3 intermediate tracks to help gauge recent speed. I have highlighted those drivers I like today with dark green signifying guys I am heaviest on and pink being drivers who I like that I think could go under owned.

Core Plays

Potential Dominators

Kyle Larson $11,000 – HMS dominated here in the Spring and looks fast with the Championship looming. Larson is the favorite to win and dominate, will be very popular.

Denny Hamlin $10,800 – No speed in practice but has been one of the best cars on this track type all season. Have to think they find the speed. PD + Dom point upside here.

William Byron $10,600 – Ditto to everything I said for Larson about Byron today. Will be slightly lower owned than Larson though.

Tyler Reddick $10,300 – Playing the speed he has had recently and in practice.

Chris Buescher $9,000 – Fast in practice and won at Michigan which is pretty similar to Vegas. Should be low owned with the chalk options around him.

Ross Chastain $8,300 – Nice value here for a guy that has had the fastest car here in 2 of the last 3. Fastest in practice and gives you some PD bonus to go with dominator potential.

Position Differential

Chase Elliott $9,200 – Tire issue in practice so he starts in the back. Chalkity, chalk, chalk, but you can’t fade him. Ton of PD upside here for $9200.

Kevin Harvick $8,000 – Should be in line for 10+ PD at least. Slow in practice but he’s a vet and will figure it out. Practice speeds will keep ownership suppressed.

Alex Bowman $7,700 – Love HMS and Chevy today, so we should have some of the guy with back to back Top 3’s here. Will be low owned with Top 5 upside.

Erik Jones $7,500 – Riding the recent speed of Jones. Think he had a car to win at Texas and he should move forward today. Likely will go under owned with the chalk options priced below him starting much further back.

Daniel Suarez $7,300 – Tire issue in practice like Chase, normally a track type that Trackhouse has speed at. Definite chalk.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr $7,100 – Another cheap PD play here. Practice speeds are decent, but this historically has not been a great track or track type for this team. Upside though is too much to pass on though.

Value Plays

AJ Allmendinger $6,700 – Low owned GPP option today. Vegas has historically been a solid track for the Dinger and Kaulig.

Carson Hocevar $6,500 – Price bump on Carson this week, but kid is a talent and Legacy has been bringing fast cars to the track.

Ryan Preece $6,100 – Starts 32nd and has been running around 20th on this track type recently. Solid value but could be the highest owned option in the value range today.

Justin Haley $5,900 – Low owned GPP option today. Like his teammate Dinger, Vegas has historically been a solid track for Haley, 3 straight finishes of 17th or better here.

Corey Lajoie $5,800 – We finally get some PD potential out of Lajoie today! Been a great year for Lajoie and that should continue here at Vegas today. 4/6 for Top 20 finishes on similar tracks this season.

Harrison Burton $5,600 – Not in love with Burton today but he should be fine for value if we see some attrition today.

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