FREE NASCAR DFS Cup Series Kansas Breakdown, Cheat Sheet, and Core 4

Welcome to another FREE NASCAR DFS breakdown provided to you by RunPureSports.com! Today we turn our attention to the 3rd 1.5 mile track of the season, Kansas Speedway. The new car on intermediate tracks this season has provided some amazing racing already and we should see more of the same today. This new car is hard to drive and is a lot less forgiving to drivers making mistakes, these guys seem to always be on the edge. Incidents and cautions have been up this season and that trend will likely continue today. Honestly, I’ve never remembered races having more of an “anything can happen” feel to them than we have had through this point in the season. It’s apparent even Vegas doesn’t know what to expect if you look at the odds with no clear cut favorite. That being said, I’m not playing any cash today and sticking to taking big swings in GPP contests, embrace the chaos.

Breakdown

Kansas is a multi groove, 1.5 mile track, with moderate tire wear. Not as much wear as a California or Darlington, but more than Vegas. Typically we see the bottom line as the preferred line early in a run on fresh tires, as tires fade drivers tend to transition to running the high line to find speed and grip. We saw the high line have a ton of speed in practice and qualifying yesterday, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see the bottom much more competitive today with much cooler temps and cloud cover, providing more grip in the track. There is even a chance we see some rain that washes rubber off the track before we start this thing as well. For those reasons I wouldn’t get married to those practice speeds we saw yesterday. As far as tracks we’ve been to this season that we can look at in prep for today it would be the other intermediates; Las Vegas, California, Darlington and even Dover.

We had several cars have tire issues in practice, which has led to back up cars and some major chalk PD plays. Logano, Buescher, and Stenhouse all did not qualify and will be scored from the rear. These guys in my opinion are good chalk this week and I will likely be playing at least 2 of these guys in each line up. Stenhouse and Buescher only have to finish top 20 to hit value, and their ceiling is way past that. As for Logano, drivers priced over $9k on DK that start 30th or worst are statistically the least likely play to bust in all of NASCAR DFS, I know… kiss of death with that one. Dominators have been way harder to get right this season than the PD plays, so I think your better off trying to find leverage there.

When we are talking Dominators in 2022 we have to start with Watermelon man Ross Chastain. He has been a contender at every type of track we have went to this season. On the intermediates, he ranks 1st in Laps led, Dom points, and driver rating. He also has one of the best pit crews so he even moves forward under caution. He starts 11th and should move forward in a hurry, giving a little PD bump as well. This $9700 price tag is criminal at this point of the season, just got to keep jamming him in if DK is not going to price him up with the big dogs.

I really like the JGR cars today. This might be a surprise with how dominate HMS has seemed, but JGR is number 1 in fast laps and laps led across those 4 intermediate tracks I mentioned above. They have 80 more fast laps and 125 more laps led than HMS. They should be strong again today as they showed up really fast off the truck in practice yesterday and Bell went out and won the pole. JGR even gets the nod from a track history stand point as well as they have won 5 of the last 10 here, while HMS has only won twice in the last 13 here. Kyle Busch has been one of the fastest cars, and pit crews, over the last month of the season. He has led the second most laps on intermediates this season and was second fastest in practice yesterday. He should contend for dom points today, but the fact that he won this race last season combined with his affordable price tag will likely make him a popular play.

Denny Hamlin is kind of a hybrid play today as he has both Dominator and PD upside. He has scored at least 20 Dom points in 3 of the last 6 Kansas races, and he ranks 3rd in Dom points on intermediates despite a season full of bad luck. Cars have been fast, just needs to survive to the end. Very high ceiling for Hamlin today. Really not sure what Hamlin’s ownership will come in at, but one guy I know for sure will go under owned and overlooked is Martin Truex Jr. Truex is due for a win and it could very well come today at the 1.5 mile Kansas. Truex ranks 1st in fast laps across the 4 intermediates this season, despite only leading 34 laps. Even if you take out Dover where he had 50+ fast laps, he still ranks 3rd across Vegas, Cali and Darlington. I expect the cooler weather today to play into Truex’s hand a bit, and if this race happens to get delayed until the evening then Truex will definitely be a contender.

Tyler Reddick is another guy I like as having potential to score some dominator points on the slate today. Not only was he fast in practice but he has been fast all year. He is top 5 in fast laps on intermediates this season with most of those fast laps coming at Darlington and California, two other tracks where the high line becomes preferred as tires start to wear. Reddick starts on the front row and should compete with Larson for early laps led today.

Harvick and Jones are a couple mid tiered PD options that I like today. $8,700 is a miss-price again on Harvick this week. He has 3 career Kansas wins and 5 straight Top 10 finishes. He also enters this race riding a streak of 3 straight Top 10 finishes, which includes a 4th last week at Darlington. Jones has been great this season and has often even ran better than some of his finishes indicate. He has an Avg running position of 11th on the 4 intermediate tracks so far this season. Top 10 is very realistic for Jones here as he already has 4 Top 10’s this season, which includes a 3rd at California earlier this season.

Keselowski has had a disappointing season to say the least but a lot of his woes can be calked up to just bad luck. This has been a solid track for BK in the past and his team mate Buescher had speed in his car before wrecking in  practice. There’s too much potential upside for BK from P30 to not have some exposure here at this cheap of a price tag.

If your looking to pivot off the Buescher or Stenhouse chalk then there are a few different routes you can go. The easiest pivot is to Wallace priced just under these guys from P25. Bubba is another guy who has ran a lot better than he has finished with an Avg. running position that is 4 spots better than his Avg. finish. Wallace’s teammate Kurt looked to have a ton of speed in practice as well, which could translate to Bubba being fast when the green flag waves. The next rout you can go to pivot off those chalk options would be to pay down for a McDowell or Gilliland. Not only will these guys be way lower owned than the chalk, but the salary saved allows you to make some unique builds. McDowell has been lights out of late with 3 top 10’s in the last 4 races and now he comes to a track where he has finished inside the Top 20 in 4 straight races. Gilliland is a solid punt option for less than 5k. He starts 31st and only has to finish 24th to hit value at this price tag, which he’s done in 3 of the 4 intermediate tracks this season.

Cheat Sheet

Below is my Cheat Sheet for today’s race at Kansas. Stats under the blue header is the combined data for California, Las Vegas, Dover and Darlington form this season. Stats under the green header are from the last 6 Kansas races. I have also included practice speeds, but take them with a grain of salt since track conditions will be drastically different today. Drivers highlighted in green are drivers I like today.

SE Core 4 

I’m not playing Cash today so this Core is geared more for Single Entry tournaments.

 

 

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