Breakdown
It’s Bristol Baby!! That’s right, the Cup Series is set to close out round 1 of the Playoffs tonight, under the lights, inside The Last Great Coliseum. The points are tight around the cutoff amongst 7-8 different drivers. Should be a drama filled evening and tempers will be pushed to the limit. 500 laps around this place is a lot like spending 3-4 hours inside a blender. You read that correctly, 500 laps! 500 laps puts a major emphasis on Dom points today. With so many Dom points on the slate we often see some massive scores. In the last 5 races here at Bristol, we have seen 11 drivers score more than 90 DK points. These point are also not only isolated to 2-3 drivers like most weeks. In the last 5 races here, 27 drivers have scored more than 20 Dom points. That is over 5 drivers per race! Dominator upside is what we need to be targeting today with the bulk of our build. 3-4 Dom builds is going to be the best approach for GPP today.
When it comes to Dom points the trend at Bristol looks a lot like most other short tracks we go to. Track position is king! Looking at those 27 dominator performances of 20+ DK points that I mentioned above, 23 of those performances came by drivers starting inside the Top 10. Only 1 of those 27 performances came from a driver starting worse than 17th, Kyle Busch, scored 23 Dom points from P31 in 2019. When looking to choose dominators today, there is no better place to start than with th0se drivers starting inside the Top 10.
A lot of who leads laps today is going to come down to pit strategy and pit stops. We have seen zero tire wear in the other 2 series this weekend and practice did not show much fall off for Cup in the limited laps. No tire wear combined with an already tough track to pass on is going to give an instant advantage to whoever restarts in first after cautions. For this reason I anticipate us seeing a few different “surprise” guys end up at the front of the field due to strategy. The other side is being on the wrong side of a strategy call could bust a favorites day in a hurry. There are so many really good options to score dominator points today and you can build some fun and stacked line ups if your ok with fading the high priced chalkier options like Larson/Hamlin. Sets up for a fun slate, a lot of routes you can go.
When looking at practice today, Ford seemed to have the best pace as an organization. Penske has solid speed which is pretty typical when we come to Bristol. JGR cars and Toyota are a mixed bag, Hamlin, Bell, And KFB all showed pace. Chevy looked to really be struggling in practice, aside from Larson, Bowman, and a surprise Dinger, no other Chevys was toward the top of the charts. Normally fast teams like Trackhouse and RCR was struggling to find pace.
Potential Dominators (Start 3-4)
Denny Hamlin $11,500 – Likely Chalky. Starts 4th. Fastest car in practice, been hot lately
Kyle Larson $10,800 – Likely Chalky. Dominated here last year, fast in practice, does it finally translate? I’ll be under
Kyle Busch $10,500 – Chalk. KFB Dominates Bristol and it’s not close. Car was solid in practice. PD and Dom upside!
Christopher Bell $10,200 – Should be lower owned. Solid in practice. One of the fastest cars recently, Bristol is his wheelhouse.
Joey Logano $9,500 – Love Logano here. My 2nd ranked driver to start the week and practice speeds backed it up. He also brings some PD.
Ryan Blaney $8,900 – Could be low owned, Great track history, Penske has speed! Scored at least 10 Dom points in 5 straight Bristol races.
Kevin Harvick $8,500 –Â Must win for play offs, Great track history, most fast laps in last 5 races here. Speed in practice, will be popular.
Chase Briscoe $7,600 –Â Nice pivot of Almirola to lead early. All of SHR looks fast, risk here but will be low owned and could score big if he leads a stretch.
Aric Almirola $7,000 – Pole sitter has scored at least 12 Dom points in 5 straight. Fast in practice, has been good on steep banked tracks this season. Will be popular at this price tag.
Cheatsheet
Below is my cheat sheet for tonight’s Cup Series race from Bristol. I have included in this sheet, DK Odds, Practice speeds, Recent Speed Ranks, Bristol history, and 2022 Steep track data. I highlighted the drivers I like today, drivers in purple I anticipate to be low owned.
Cash Core
Below is my Core for cash games today. I’m not a big fan in cash games today. Just so many variables with who score the Dom points and you are likely going to need to get the main one right to hit cash. Not a easy prospect today, and not attractive enough for me to chase for a 2x reward. I am sticking mostly to GPP today.
