FREE NASCAR DFS Cup Series Atlanta Breakdown, Cheat Sheet and Core

Welcome to my FREE NASCAR DFS breakdown of tonight’s Cup Series race at Atlanta Superspeedway! Tonight promises to be a fun one as NASCAR’s elite drivers take on the high banks of Atlanta in some good ol’ fashioned pack racing under the lights! While Atlanta may not serve up the three-wide drama we see at Daytona and Talladega, it still dishes out exciting, tense racing that tends to amp up as the laps tick off and the checkered flag nears.

This article will be more concise than usual. Firstly, the races here can be fairly unpredictable, and the strategy for approaching them is rather straightforward – #StackTheBack… ish. Secondly, I’m writing this article in the rain, confined to the “comfort” of my tent, contending with a limited battery life and temperamental WiFi. So, let’s see how far we can get before I lose you!

Breakdown

Let’s start with the specifics of the race venue. Atlanta has recently been reconfigured and is now the third Super Speedway on the NASCAR circuit. For DFS purposes, this new configuration has significant implications. When we are searching for potential performers, it would be wise to consider drivers who have shown solid performances in the three races held here since the repave. Moreover, those drivers who have proven their mettle at Dega and Daytona in the next-gen car should also warrant our attention.  But as I said, these races are unpredictable, so playing your favorite number is also a viable strategy.

Analyzing the top eight scorers on DraftKings in the last three Atlanta races may offer us some valuable insights on how to approach today.

Remarkably, 33% of the Top 8 scorers were drivers who started inside the top ten. This might seem to contradict the “stack the back” theory that’s often prevalent for Super Speedway races. But it’s important to note that predicting success for those starting in the top ten is a difficult needle to thread.

Digging deeper, it becomes clear that each of these high-scoring performances had one thing in common: all eight drivers finished inside the top three. Additionally, five of the eight led for more than 30 laps and scored ten or more dominator points.

This points to the type of performance to target when considering drivers who are starting within the top ten. Team dynamics can play a massive role in this. That’s why the Penske duo of Blaney and Logano are particularly appealing. Starting nose to tail on the outside, they have a proven record of leading these packs, having combined to lead 20% of all laps on Super Speedways in this next-gen car.

However, remember that this approach isn’t without risk. The top ten carries only the third-best average DraftKings score, trailing positions 21-30 and 31+ and only ahead of positions 11-20.

Speaking of positions 11-20, this range not only has the lowest average DraftKings score of the four groups, but it also contributes the lowest percentage of top eight scorers. So, be careful with your roster construction when it comes to targeting too many driver’s in that range.

The back half of the field continues to be a dominant force in terms of high scoring potential, accounting for 50% of the top eight scorers on DraftKings in races at the newly configured Atlanta.

The group starting in positions 31 and beyond stands out in particular, boasting the highest average DraftKings score. Drivers starting in this range average over 37 DraftKings points, making them a safe prospect for your lineups. Despite having fewer drivers to choose from (only 18 drivers have started in this range across the three races, compared to 30 in all other starting ranges), this group still contributes 21% of the top eight scorers on DraftKings, providing massive upside with their safe floor, but they will also garner heavy ownership.

So, when it comes to cash games and single-entry small tournaments, sticking with drivers starting in the back half of the field should remain a viable and profitable strategy this week. However, for those of you participating in larger field GPP tournaments, you’ll want to diversify your approach. Sprinkle in one or two drivers starting inside the top ten who show potential dominator upside. This balance will help provide the maximum upside your lineup will need takedown a tourney tonight.

Last 3 ATL Races Chaos and Carnage

YES YOU CAN LEAVE SALARY! NO YOUR NOT LEAVING TOO MUCH!

Cheat Sheet

Below, you’ll find my cheat sheet for tonight’s Cup Series race from Atlanta. I’ve incorporated data from all nine Super Speedway races that have used the next gen car. I’ve highlighted drivers I’m particularly interested in for today’s race, but keep in mind that you could make a case for any driver in such a race.

Drivers highlighted in blue are likely to be the chalk today, and there is plenty of it. Those in purple I expect to be less popular choices, which makes them more suitable for large field GPPs. Given the unpredictability and chaos that often accompany races like this, it’s essential to differentiate your lineup by fading some of the chalk choices – they’re not all going to pull through and make it to the end.

I’m particularly keen on Austin Hill and Noah Gragson as strong picks for today. They’re likely to be far less popular than other options in the 31+ range, which could give your lineup a unique edge. As always, strategize wisely and good luck!

GPP Core

Just doing a GPP core today, you guys should be able to figure out Cash/SE, you can easily start 6 of the chalk 30+ start range drivers. For GPP I am going with Blaney to lead a large chunk of this race with the help of his teammate Logano. Blaney’s Avg finish of 7.89 in the 9 SS races in the next gen is 5 spots better than 2nd place Chase Elliot. He is tied for the most Top 5’s at 4, and has the most top 10’s with 6. The only thing Blaney hasn’t done is win and I think that happens today. I don’t think anyone is going to play Gragson this week because frankly you don’t HAVE to dip down that far and he wrecked a dozen time last week, but he is a great Super Speedway racer and Legacy brings cars to these tracks. He was a couple laps form winning Dega this year.

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