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Falcons +4 @ Saints Total 42.5
DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE
Falcons VS PASS 29th // VS RUSH 28th // PASS 21st // RUSH 18th // OVERALL 16th
Saints VS PASS 12th // VS RUSH 21st // PASS 16th // RUSH 6th // OVERALL 22nd
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Who would have thought at the beginning of the year this week 15 game would be huge for both teams. It’s must win for the Saints as a loss will likely eliminate them. A loss for the Falcons will make it tougher but if Carolina and Tampa both lose they could still be alive. These teams met week 1 with the Saints winning 27-26. I expect a defensive game this outing. In five of last six the Saints have gone under 40 total points. The Falcons have gone under 40 total points in four of last five.
The Falcons are turning the ball over to Desmond Ridder. The rookie hasn’t played all year but does have similar characteristics to Marcus Mariota. The good is he has had a bye week to prepare. The bad, we don’t know what to expect from him. This makes it tough playing the Falcons. Will he connect with fellow rookie Drake London while both will be low owned and a unique stack. The Saints have been giving it up on the ground verse the air which plays into the Falcons as they favor the run. Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier will share the ball making both tough to play. The question is how much do both gain from Ridder not carrying the ball as much as Mariota. At this time I am off the Falcons as we have better spots to attack.
The Saints also arrive off a bye week hoping to change their prior results. Like the Falcons, the Saints, have lost four of their last five games. Andy Dalton remains in charge. Dalton has exceeded 20 fantasy points in two of his ten games. While the opposing quarterbacks haven’t been quality names the Falcons have held their last four opponents under 200 yards. If the Saints are going to get the job done it will be because of Alvin Kamara. With Ingram now out it becomes his show. The Falcons have allowed 150+ yards in four of last five games on the ground. The key for Kamara is finding the end zone. He isn’t great running out of the back field for yards and 100 yards isn’t a lock. The wideouts are healthy for the Saints. Chris Olave is option one but his price makes him tough to play. I do expect the Saints to control the game, it’s just a matter of do they capitalize. As always Taysom Hill is an option on FD being TE eligible. I do expect him to be involved at low ownership in a big game.
THE DFS GEMS
Alvin Kamara, Saints-$6,800 He should see 20+ touches. If he can find the end zone he should have a great shot at paying his price off.
Rashid Shaheed, Saints-$3,200 Large field tournaments only. He is starting to come on and has explosive upside. If he can break two big plays and take one to end zone he pays off at low ownership.
Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS
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