Johnny Cueto vs Julio Urias
Dodgers -200. Total 9
Coming off 1-1 dropping a bit over 1/2 unit from my last article, we’ll look to bounce back here. We have Johnny Cueto on the bump at home hosting the Dodgers with Julio Urias.
We are practically 1/2 way through the season at this point and it is safe to say that both the Giants and the Dodgers have exceeded expectations thus far. Some may say that the Dodgers are what they thought they’d be, but I’d ask you this. If the game total for wins on the Dodgers was set at 21.5 through 30 games, would you have bet it over? Of course not. You’d never expect a team regardless of how good they are supposed to be to win 73% of their games. The line would have been about 19, but not 21.5. Needless to say, they’ve outperformed the already bullish market on them, which actually may be even more impressive than the team we’re about to talk about.
The Giants have been quite a pleasant surprise. You may see a 14-16 record and not think much of it, but do realize this team was projected to win 24 games and even less at some sports books. 14 wins at this point, puts them at good pace 1/2 way through the season. This team has been nothing short of incredible with their bats to start the year. To put it into perspective, at 149 runs scored to date, the Giants would lead the NL Central in runs scored, the NL East, the AL Central, and would be 2nd in runs in the AL East and AL West. This team can slap up and down the lineup. Pitching woes, specifically the bullpen have been the primary reason for the 16 losses.
Onto this game where run opportunities should be bountiful tonight. I’ll start with the Dodgers who just mash right handed pitching. Cueto is off to a decent start to the year, but is now seeing the Dodgers for the 3rd time this season and always finds himself in trouble vs them. The opportunities for runs to be scored will be there for the Dodgers vs Cueto. 1-2 long balls could really assist this as well. On the road, they’ll be guaranteed 9 at bats and once Cueto’s gone, they get to see one of the MLB’s worst bullpens. Even at San Francisco, the total appears a notch low.
The Giants are one of the best teams in the league vs left handed pitching. Sounds crazy right, but it’s true. Julio Urias has been real good thus far, but we’ve seen this all year with good pitchers getting hit hard by this Giants lineup. The Giants have also seen him twice already, so I’d expect a better turnout than the previous two occasions. Urias surface numbers are strong, but unravel the onion and there’s some alarms that go off. 52% hard contact, fastball velo down, 84% LOB rate all point to regression on it’s way. Does it start tonight, no one can confirm that with certainty, but it’s coming if these numbers stay put.
We have two pitchers who are no stranger to both teams and a Giants bullpen which has proven all year to give up late runs. Urias is by no means an innings eater, so we could see some extra bullpen guys from the Dodgers tonight too. Big number for this ballpark, but runs make sense tonight and I’ll back this spot and over 9.
Giants vs Dodgers OVER 9 -115