Luke Weaver (AZ) vs Frankie Montas (OAK)
Betting Spread OAK -148. Total 9
You’ll notice with me, I talk far more on my losses than my wins which may feel different for anyone new following me vs other handicappers. This comes down to process above all else. When I lose a game that didn’t go at all how I projected, I’m always striving to be better and always want to understand what went wrong. When I win a game that went as I projected, I find no need to pound my own chest. It’s simply onto the next one. One thing I do love though is promoting others I respect in this space. Our team has been picked up in MLB by Joey Werk who’s been on a serious heater. If you haven’t been onboard with him, get onboard. He even adds more free picks in his videos from the discord.
Back to the game last night. Many of us who gamble suffer from hindsight bias. This is simply where we overestimate our own abilities to predict an event which has already happened. You see it all the time right?
“I knew I should have bet the Yankees” after they won. “I knew this game was a trap and I should’ve stayed away” after it lost. “I knew the Pick 3 lotto today would come out with my Father-in law’s birthday numbers. I just spoke with him yesterday about about lucky he was too”
Needless to say, hindsight bias does us no good cause it keeps a failed process that way. You get something wrong and somehow convince yourself you were right. Last night’s OVER 9.5 with the Astros and Mariners, could have been a game I won, but I wouldn’t have deserved it. Houston’s bullpen has been throwing well and also has a black hole in that back of their lineup. Colorado is never the same away from Coors hitting the baseball and also came off a fairly cold series at home. I overvalued the advanced numbers relative to the poor starting pitching. Now, sure the umpire had a generous strike zone and quite a few double plays came at unfortunate times, but it was the wrong side. All you can do is face that fact and move on. No one gets every game right, but the result doesn’t always dictate right/wrong. Sometime you lose games and win games you shouldn’t. The moral of the story here is always grade yourself fairly and adjust moving forward. Don’t waste even one second convincing yourself you’re always right on losing bets. This is simply a failed process.
Onto today’s game, I already posted the Jays who I liked last night. The other game I liked I wanted a better line on which needed some market influence. This is one of those games that the eye test will immediately tell you one thing, but behind the curtain will tell another. Frankie Montas is off to a tremendous start to the year. ERA of 1.57, WHIP of 1.00 and coming off a great start vs the Astros going 7 shutout innings. His advanced numbers aren’t near as good, but it’s still a great start to the year. There are still some alarming things about Montas in relation to his low ERA like his 20% line drive rate, .237 BABIP, and 83% LOB% along with his .300 wOBA to lefites, but overall he’s been at minimum above average.
Luke Weaver has bad surface numbers lead by his 11.85 ERA, with his major red flags being home runs. Seven home runs in 13 innings won’t hold it in the majors. The Athletics are no stranger to home runs, so wouldn’t surprise if a few balls leave the yard here from Oakland. His line drive rate though at 18% is even lower than Montas, so the issue is really the home run mistakes. Also a sub .400 BABIP is certainly an unlucky indicator. His wOBA numbers are very alarming though to hitters on both sides of the plate. Weaver will have his hands full today with this Oakland lineup, but it wouldn’t surprise if he throws decent here considering how well the DBacks as a whole are playing. The Diamondbacks have this newfound confidence and as I’ve mentioned before, winning is contagious. This isn’t my exact angle here though.
I look at this game in one true light. The DBacks have really found their stride at the dish recently. They’ve scored 4 runs in 8 straight games with 5 runs in 7 of 8 and at least 8 hits in 7 straight games. They also squeezed the talented Bassitt for over 5 innings with constant runners in play to score. This recent surge has bumped Arizona to 7th in MLB in batting average. They now draw a low team total vs the good Frankie Montas and I simply think this is a mathematical line not taking into account how well the Diamondbacks are hitting coming in. This team has also been patient drawing 10 walks in their last three games. Sometimes, it gets lost in translation, but when you bet totals over, you are anticipating teams having more opportunities to score vs the number in play. Sometimes home runs assist this or bail out bad over calls, but these are always tough to predict at a high clip. Home runs or not, I’d expect the DBacks to have many opportunities to score today and this number is a run low all things considered. I’ll jump on the OVER 3.5 here at -130 to ride their bats and recent success. The walk off win yesterday should have only added to this team’s momentum. If you feel real risky, you can dabble on the DBacks ML, but value for me is really past +150. Not official from me by any means, as my target is the TT. I don’t mind 4 for the team total if it’s less vig, but I’d leverage multiple books to find 3.5. It’s certainly out there.
Diamondbacks Team Total OVER 3.5 -130