Dee’s Soccer – Bet on | Bet against – March 2021
The following teams selected are a few that I have flagged as ‘bet on’ or ‘bet against’ over the next few weeks. With day to day injury news, team selections, and money-line movement for both the teams listed in this article and their opponents, there will be days in which a team in this article is not a bet on or bet against, even if listed as such. This article is a guideline on which teams to target in the betting market, but not every target deserves a trigger to be pulled every time, or you might catch some backfire.
I am always available through direct messages or in the soccer-chat if you want my take on any game.
Please note; teams may be added to this article later. You will receive a notification in the discord if any team is added to this article.
BET ON: SEVILLA (Leagues: La Liga, Champions League)
Having lost 4 of their last 5 games across all competitions, Sevilla are coming off a tough run of fixtures, including 3 matches vs Barcelona which included a 120 minute extra time thriller in which Sevilla were knocked out of the Copa del Rey after receiving a red card. With a few players recently coming back from injury, Sevilla have one of the deepest squads in La Liga. With the recent addition of attacking midfielder Papu Gomez from Atalanta getting accustomed to his new team, we should expect strong starting lineups with a few impact players off the bench. Sevilla are currently ranked 4th in La Liga, only 3 points ahead of Real Sociedad. With the season in the latter half, Sevilla need wins to finish in the all-important top 4 of La Liga. They have a favorable schedule upcoming and should be looked to be potentially taken to win games on the money-line at any number -140 or better, or -1 on the Asian Handicap at any number -120 or better.
BET ON: ATLETICO MADRID (Leagues: La Liga, Champions League)
After looking so formidable early in their campaign, Atlético have hit a poor run of form, at least to their standards. Some of this can be attested to injury and covid protocols. Now with players constantly in squad rotation such as Joao Felix, Kieran Trippier, Yannick Carrasco, and Thomas Lemar, along with others, Atlético, one of Europe’s best starting XI squads should finish the season strong as they hang onto first place in La Liga ahead of giant rivals Real Madrid and Barcelona. This would be the first time in the past 7 years and the second time in the past 17 years in which a new champion (other than Barca and Real Madrid) is crowned. You will probably have to bet on a handicap when backing Atlético, but there will be spots when a -1 or -1.5 is worth laying some juice
BET ON: BRIGHTON (League: English Premier League)
I am not sure there has been a team with worse luck in England this season. Brighton sit in 17th place, level on points with 18th place Fulham. If Brighton fall any further, they will be relegated to the second tier of English football, and for the recent investment Brighton have made, that would be a blow to the team’s finances. They have plenty of motivation to win. If we go by xG and xGA, Brighton would rank 6th in the EPL. Brighton have a GD of -8, better than any other team in the bottom 9. Brighton rank in the top 8 in the league in the number of times they have hit the woodwork, time of possession in the opposition’s third of the field, and big chances missed. Their upcoming fixtures this month will be versus a Southampton team and Newcastle team facing significant injuries while being on a bad run of form. Brighton have very little travel to deal with and if Brighton have fair value of anything -115 or better on the money-line or +120 or better on a -1 handicap, they could potentially be a bet on team.
BET ON: BRENTFORD – Overs (League: England Championship)
With their most recent opponents positive covid tests, Brentford, the top scoring team in the England Championship have had a nice break from action for over a week. This will allow the team to be rested for a final stretch of important matches that will be the difference between guaranteeing a spot in the English Premier League next season, or fighting for a spot in the play-off, a position that Brentford have failed numerous times in the past. Brentford are coming off a poor run, losing 5 of their last 7 matches. If Toney is fit down the stretch, look for Brentford to continue to score goals and be on the front foot trying to collect 3 points in matches. With a mediocre defense that is missing their best center-back and best fullback you might be able to find value in the overs market in Brentford matches. Squad selection is a key component here. With a few injuries keeping players in and out on any given day, we want to see the likes of Toney and Bryan Mbeumo in the starting XI. If Rico Henry and Pontus Jansson make a return to the squad, Brentford will be a team to back, until then, I expect overs to hit.
BET AGAINST: NEWCASTLE UNITED (League: English Premier League)
Newcastle seem to be destined for the Championship, with the growing injury list and a manager that seems to have lost his dressing room, Newcastle’s Premier League days seem to be numbered. Even with Newcastle’s best starting XI, they would struggle to win any of their next 9 matches. Newcastle have lost 10 games by 2+ goals. With only 2 wins in their last 18 games across all competitions, the schedule does not get easier. Their upcoming opponents are also in “win now” mode as they are facing European cup positions and relegation battles. Looks for teams to continue to feed on a beat-up Newcastle side.