Game: Bayern Munich vs Werder Bremen
League: Germany – Bundesliga
Time: 9:30 am EST
We are all aware that Bayern Munich are a much superior team to Werder Bremen. But is this a spot to bet Bayern on a handicap? Bayern have won 9 of their 17 wins by 2+ goals. Is that enough to back them, or do we take a shot with Werder Bremen?
Bayern Munich are coming off 6-days rest. Werder Bremen will be on 3 days rest. No big deal. However, add the fact that Bayern Munich are as healthy and fit as they have been all season, things get a little scarier for Bremen. Bayern have had to deal with plenty of injuries to key players all season. The German giants still lead the Bundesliga and are in great shape heading into their second leg of the Champion League next week. It’s a testament to the team’s depth.
Bayern have scored 13 goals over their past 3 games, and average 2.96 GF/g this season. They lead the Bundesliga in xG with 2.32/g, which is +0.5 xG greater than the next best team. Bayern hold ball possession an average per game of 59% and average 16.9 shots/g. 60% of Bayern’s shots come from inside the 18-yard box.
Werder Bremen have 1 win in 14 matches vs teams ranked ahead of them in the standings. Bremen rank next to the bottom with the least amount of possession in the opposition’s third of the field. Bayern Munich spend the least amount of time in their own final third and the most amount of possession in their opponents third.
Werder Bremen rank bottom 3 in possession% and pass accuracy. For a team that doesn’t have much possession, Werder Bremen also rank in the bottom half of the league in interceptions per game, counter-attack goals, and goals from open play.
Bottom-line, the price for Bayern Munich to win this game by a minimum of 2 goals is too low. With the starting XI and substitutes we are going to see on the pitch, combined with Bayern coming off more rest and only being ahead by 2 points in the table, Bayern should win this game by one goal at the very least. They just need a little execution to win by 2+ goals even if they are having an off game. If Bayern are in-form for this match they have the potential of winning this game by 4+ goals if they are on target for most of the game.
This game finished as a 1-1 draw earlier this season, I expect Bayern to take advantage of a better situation this time around.
Dee’s Best Bet:
Bayern Munich -1.75 Asian Handicap (-110) Good to -125
(This wager can also be viewed as -0.5, -1.0 handicap)
Risking 1.1u to win 1u