Contrarian Showdown- Giants at 49ers

Week 3 of the NFL season kicks off tonight! I’m still heartbroken over the Nick Chubb injury on Monday night, so I’m hoping a little Thursday Night Showdown cheddar can lift my spirits here. We have an NFC matchup that features a New York Giants team without Saquon Barkley, and the mighty San Francisco 49ers.

Now, a little about me and this article. I’m a single entry DFS player who enjoys building and rooting for my one team that I spent hours to construct. The difference between myself and other single entry players, is that I prefer to build in a very contrarian way. You’ll never see a Patrick Mahomes captain when you see Tabor5 at the top of a showdown leaderboard and that’s what this article will do for you. I try to focus on the not so popular builds and players that give us the edge we need to take down some big time cash! Let’s take a look at todays game.

Notes: Following Vegas and these lines can be important to your builds. Game flow, outcomes, and the line changes can all make a difference. Today we have the 49ers favored by 10.5 at home against the New York Giants. The total is really low at just 43.5. You want to establish how you see this game playing out, for me I’m loving the over here and the Giants +10.5. Daniel Jones carried this team back from a 28-7 deficit by scoring 31 points in the second half at Arizona on Sunday. I know that’s Arizona and this is San Francisco and that makes big a difference, but you have to think this Giants team is feeling good now coming into this Thursday night game. I’m expecting a close game with a lot of offense here. Let’s call our shot 27-21 49ers win, but The Giants have a chance to win it on the last drive of the game. 

 

Captain Plays 

Deebo Samuel- My approach with the 49ers receivers has always been simple. When they see man to man coverage I want Deebo. His quickness and athleticism is nearly impossible to match and these are the games he erupts. Brandon Aiyuk slips in the cracks of zone coverage and that’s where we see a lot of his damage come. Lucky for us, the Giants played more man coverage last year than any other team in football. This sets us up for a monster game from Deebo and I’m all in on playing him as my captain tonight.

Daniel Jones- I mentioned in my breakdown of the game that I truly believe the Giants put up a fight tonight. The 49ers should be able to apply pressure on Jones, but I actually want that today and I expect the Giants QB to not only be running for his life, but running even more often with the absence of Barkley. I could definitely see Jones approaching 100 yards on the ground today and that’s a massive edge to have rostered for a QB.

Matt Breida- I don’t expect many people to roster Breida tonight, let alone captain him at this price tag. This is a tough defense to run on and $7k is no easy pill to swallow for an old man back up running back against the 49ers. I have reason for hope though. Breida has always been the best pass blocker on this Giants team and on top of the Barkley absence we have a game script that should leave Daniel Jones and the Giants throwing the ball a lot. I’m not saying all of this happens but just think with me… there’s not any serviceable options for the Giants outside of Breida. It wouldn’t be crazy to see Breida with all the touchdown opportunities right? It also wouldn’t be crazy to see 10-15 carries and 50 yards right? How about 6-8 receptions as Jones checks down all day long? If Breida plays as much as I think he will then he’s not only one of the safest floor plays, but he has a huge ceiling at his price tag.

 

Flex Plays

Christian McCaffrey- The most obvious flex play of them all. I can’t captain McCaffrey at this $13k price tag and I’m sure a lot of people will. He honestly needs 30+DK points for this price to make sense at captain. It’s certainly not out of his reach, he is the best duel threat running  back in the game, but I’ll side elsewhere and take McCaffreys 20 points in my flex. Not much else to say, you’d be foolish not to have him unless you’re hoping he gets hurt.

Giants Wide Receiver- I want to talk about a couple guys here. Last week was a pass happy attack for New York because they fell behind early to Arizona and I think it’s safe to assume the same tonight. Last week should be a good way to project them here. Snaps were as follows: Waller 90%, Slayton 82%, Hodgins 75%, Campbell 66%, Bellinger 41%, Hyatt 21%, Shepard 15%. The gap between receivers is close enough that I’m willing to take the savings on Paris Campbell as my favorite one to pair with Jones here. I’m not as excited to roster Waller because of the 49ers success against tight ends over the past few years.

Kickers- we have a low total here, but I’m fading the defenses. I prefer to go kickers in this game as I do think it stays close and competitive.

 

Fades

49ers Defense- This is going to be a really popular play and I’m glad to avoid it. The giants had one hell of a second half and I can see them carrying some of that success over in this short week.

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