Bobby’s Stacks, One Offs, And Fades 5/19

If you’re new to this article here is a rundown of what I will cover and this article is more geared towards DraftKings. The goal of this article is to identify my 3-5 favorite stacks, 3-5 favorite one offs, and 3-5 fades. The fades may be a certain stack, pitcher, or chalky one off player. The number of players I list will also be slate dependent.

In my NBA article I talk about low owned studs and mispriced players. In Golf I talk a lot of course fit, popular lineup construction, and win equity. In MLB DFS it’s all about the stacks and there is a lot less “good chalk” in MLB DFS due to the variance game to game. Mike Trout can go 0-4 on any given night, but Giannis Antetokounmpo isn’t going to go for 0 or 10 fantasy points unless he gets hurt. You can also just flat out get unlucky when you player hits a piss missile right an infielder or misses a HR by a couple feet but would’ve been a no doubter at 90% of other ballparks. Process can be right even if the results don’t follow every night.

Hopefully this article will help you round out your lineup with that guy who helps you to top of the leaderboard, gets you off the wrong stack, or helps you play the stack that ships all the cheese.

STACKS/PITCHERS

  • Texas Rangers
    My favorite stack on the slate and I will be loading up on Texas for 20 Max. Colorado is throwing out Karl Kauffman (R) who has no business pitching in the majors let alone AAA. He’s still young so maybe he figures it out at some point, but this season in AAA he has a whopping 7.78 ERA and 1.78 WHIP. The Rangers just welcomed back Corey Seager to the lineup to make the stack even tastier. The Rangers have 57 HRs on the year and 44 of those have came against righties. Colorado’s bullpen has the 6th worst WHIP in the league at 1.39 and is 3rd worst in walks allowed.
  • Houston Astros
    The Astros welcome back Jose Altuve tonight and get the Oakland A’s. Alex Bregman is also starting to heat up and the Astros just scored at least 6 runs every game in their series sweep against the Cubs. I love pairing the Astros with the Rangers tonight and Houston is my 2nd favorite stack on the slate. The A’s bullpen is league worst in ERA, HRs, walks, and WHIP. They are just historically bad and you can justify stacking against them every night.
  • Toronto Blue Jays
    Kyle Gibson got off to a decent start this year but he’s been bad his last four starts. He’s given up 15 runs in 22 innings against Pittsburgh, Tampa, Kansas City, and Detroit. He has only faced one elite offense and Tampa only tagged him for a couple runs in that game. Brandon Belt has woken up finally he’s dirt cheap at 1B and you have a couple other cheaper lefties you can mix in with right handed studs for Toronto. They look like a great option tonight.
  • Baltimore Orioles
    I am always interested in stacking against Kikuchi because of his struggles with the long ball. He’s been a lot better this year and shown a ton of strikeout upside. He’s had two games this year where he gave up 3 HRs and he’s given up at least one HR in 75% of his outings. Baltimore has an almost 5 run implied run total and current ownership is single digits for the entire team. I’m onboard with 5 man stacks or mini stacks hoping to snag a HR or two. I can see Kikuchi having a decent outing while giving up a few HRs.
  • Sandy Alcantara
    My favorite pitcher on the slate tonight and is in a pitcher’s ballpark tonight in San Francisco. Season long ERA doesn’t look great but it’s still early and he got shelled by Philly in his 3rd start. He also has had to face Atlanta twice this year. The strikeout numbers are still fantastic and he’s gone over 100 pitches his last 3 outings. San Francisco is also missing Joc Pederson which is another bonus for Sandy. I think we see Cy Sandy and a 30+ point performance on DK tonight.

ONE OFFS

  • Ryan Mountcastle
    Has insanely good BVP for Kikuchi in 9 ABs. He’s hit 3 HRs and is batting .444 in the limited sample size. Has the platoon advantage in the matchup. I love him as a one off or in a Baltimore mini stack. On DK Sportsbook he’s +450 to hit a HR and +1200 for a HR in his first AB. Love the +450 and think the +1200 is a fun one to sprinkle in if you want to cook up a SGP.
  • Brandon Belt
    Up to hitting .271 against righties on the season and has been great his last 15 days. Over the last 15 days he’s hitting .412 with a 1.130 OPS. At just $2.3K he makes for a nice cheap 1B one off or a way to save salary in your Toronto stacks.
  • Corey Seager
    He’s been fantastic this year hitting .333 and will be one of my most exposed players tonight. I’m happy to spend up on Seager.
  • Alex Bregman
    Historically a slow starter but he’s been heating up a bit and the Astros welcome Altuve back to the lineup tonight as well. Last 7 days he’s hitting .333 with 2 HRs. Love the matchup against Oakland and he’s one of those guys that has double dong upside to nuke a slate.
  • Robbie Grossman
    He got off to a bit of a slow start to the season but has been hot the last week and awesome for the past month. Last week he’s batting .333 with 2 HRs and over the past month he’s batting .299 with 2 HRs and 16 RBIs. He’s also only $2.4K on DraftKings.

FADES

  • Blake Snell
    Saber currently has Blake Snell projected to be the highest owned pitcher on the slate. I am a Blake Snell guy typically because of his upside. He’s certainly more of a boom or bust type of pitcher. Petco is a pitcher’s ballpark but I’m not dying to attack Boston with 30%+ owned Snell tonight. I may end up with a little in 20 max but I would rather play Anthony DeSclafani tonight for almost the same price.
  • Matthew Boyd
    You may see the Nationals and think maybe I can punt with Matthew Boyd to save some money with my SP2. I wouldn’t recommend that tonight since the Nationals have actually been pretty good against left handed pitching. As a team they’re batting .297 on the season against lefties even if the power numbers are lacking a bit. I think they’re pesky enough and not the worst cheap mini stack.
  • Minnesota Twins
    The Twins have 27% strikeout rate against lefties and I would rather play Detmers at pitcher than stack against him. My Twins have heated back up a little bit recently but I prefer them against righties and think they struggle tonight. I don’t think Detmers completely shuts them down but I think he gets a quality start in with 5+ Ks. Don’t mind Buxton as a one off.
  • Chicago White Sox
    Not a fan of 5-man White Sox stacks tonight even though they get a nice matchup against Greinke. Greinke somehow finds a way most the time to not get completely blown up. I don’t hate a one off like Sheets or Benintendi but I think we see a lot of runs from other teams and a White Sox stack doesn’t do enough for you tonight.
  • Kansas City Royals
    Kopech has regressed mightily this year and has had few blow up games. Like the White Sox I don’t love 5-man stacks here but won’t completely talk you out of a Royal one off or mini stack. Sal Perez and Witt Jr. are really expensive it’s just not where I want to spend my money tonight. If you want to play Melendez or Pratto as a one off I definitely don’t mind their price tags. I’d rather HR hunt a little here than stack. KC is middle of the pack in terms of strikeout rate and over his last 5 starts Kopech’s K numbers are on the rise. He’s not a priority for me but I don’t mind betting on the long-term talent and getting a little bit of him tonight.

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