BILLS AT PATRIOTS, NFL WEEK 16

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BUFFALO BILLS +2 @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 43.5

 

DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE

BILLS VS PASS 2 // VS RUSH 9 // PASS 11 // RUSH 16 // OVERALL 3

PATRIOTS VS PASS 3 // VS RUSH 6 // PASS 12 // RUSH 13 // OVERALL 5

SOURCE: footballoutsiders.com

 

MATCHUP SUMMARY

The Bills are looking to avenge their week 13 loss to the Patriots at home and assert themselves as the top team in the AFC East. In previous meeting versus the Patriots, Josh Allen (7500) has failed to be a QB1 and I dont expect anything different here. I wont be considering him in any format this week. The backfield for the Bills is very uninspiring as well with Devin Singletary (5100) as the only possible play. He is coming off a 22 carry 86 yard and 1 TD performance versus the Panthers.

Based on the low total and prior history in this matchup, Stefon Diggs (7600) is simply too expensive in this matchup that is poised to be a defensive struggle. With Cole Beasley (4600) sidelined on the Covid list, week 15 slate breaker Gabriel Davis (4700) figures to see an increased role in this game even as Emmanuel Sanders (4000) is set to make his return this week. Isaiah McKenzie (3000) is an interesting dart throw at min price here. Dawson Knox (5300) is a clear focal point for Josh Allen in the redzone but I’m unsure if im willing to pay his price with the total of the game so low and other great TE plays.

UPDATE: As I was writing this, the Bills also added Gabriel Davis to the COVID list. This sets up Emmanual Sanders and Isaiah McKenzie as popular punt WR options this week.

In their last meeting in Buffalos wind game, Bill Belicheck was content on just running the ball down the throat of the Bills defense. Mac Jones (5300) had a total of 3 pass attempts. With NE favored by 2 points, I would expect a similiar approach in this game. I wont have any Mac Jones on this slate. Damien Harris (5600) has been limited in practiace this week and Rhomandre Stevenson (5000) has yet to log a practice this week. I would still expect 1 if not both of them to play in this crucial week 16 matchup. Both are just fringe options here as they will likely split the workload.

We need to monitor the status of Kendrick Bourne (5000) as he was placed on the COVID list but has a shot to play still this week if he can post b2b negative tests. Jakobi Meyers (4900) would be the primary beneficiary if he were to miss. Nelson Agholor (3600) has yet to log a practice this week. No other Pats WR is interesting to me in this game. Hunter Henry is coming off his best game as a Patriot posting a 6 catch, 77 yards, 2 TD performance versus the Colts in week 15.

THE DFS GEMS

Emmanuel Sanders, BUF  – $4,000 on DraftKings.  Increased role with Beasley and Davis OUT.

Isaiah McKenzie, BUF – $3,000 on Draftkings. Increased role with Beasley and Davis OUT.

Damien Harris, NE – $5,600 on Draftkings. Keep an eye on the status’ for the NE backs.

Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS

Article produced by garyuscg14  


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