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BILLS +3.5 @ BUCCANEERS 53.5
DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE
BILLS VS PASS 32 // VS RUSH 1 // PASS 12 // RUSH 21 // OVERALL 3
BUCCANEERS VS PASS 7 // VS RUSH 9 // PASS 1 // RUSH 2 // OVERALL 1
SOURCE: footballoutsiders.com
MATCHUP SUMMARY
The Bills, losers of two of their last three games, sit at 7-5 in second place in the AFC East behind the New England Patriots heading into this matchup. With the highest implied total on the main slate at 53.5, Vegas expects fireworks and the DFS pieces will be popular. I lean on the side of the Bills’ passing attack and a bounceback spot in perfect weather for Josh Allen and crew. It would not surprise me to see Buffalo shelve the run game completely against Tampa Bay’s stout rushing defense. Stefon Diggs is overpriced comparative to other plays on the slate in the price range in my opinion. A contrarian way to stack this Buffalo side is Allen with Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders. Dawson Knox carries a hefty price tag but does see heavy usage particularly in the red zone.
Tampa Bay heads home riding a three-game winning streak to face one of the more complete teams in the league. Buffalo’s defense has been burned by opposing running backs over the past four games, allowing an average of more than 20 fantasy points per game to them even after you exclude Jonathan Taylor’s monster performance. This is another good spot for Leonard Fournette who has found his place as the bellcow in Tampa. I find myself much lower than the field on Tom Brady and his passing weapons this week due to price and matchup. Buffalo has limited opposing passing attacks to a good degree this season and I think there are better plays this week. Chris Godwin will be very popular after his 15 reception, 143 yard shellacking of the Falcons, but the Bills are much more formidable. If I play any of Tampa Bay’s receivers it will be Mike Evans at lower ownership.
THE DFS GEMS
JOSH ALLEN, BUF – $7800 on DraftKings. I expect a pass-heavy game plan in an above-average matchup.
LEONARD FOURNETTE, TB – $7400 on DraftKings. Buffalo’s defensive weak point has been against the run and Fournette should see heavy volume.
COLE BEASLEY, BUF – $5000 on DraftKings. Cole is a great tournament play after some poor performances.
EMMANUEL SANDERS, BUF – $4900 on DraftKings. Sanders has seen volume in pass-heavy game scripts.
Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS
Article produced by “JT Hayes”
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