Best Ball Strategy Series: Fading in Best Ball

In my weekly strategy video, I discussed the difference between fading in best ball vs. fading in daily fantasy. After 10 years of playing DFS, it’s hard to shift mindsets on how fading and ownership differ in best ball. But they do. I’ll get more into ownership and exposure in best ball in the next couple of weeks.

But let’s talk about why it’s fine to make big stands and fades in best ball and how it’s different from DFS fades. In DFS, we have an approximate ownership projection of players before the slate locks and we make stands to fade or go underweight/overweight on a player. If you’re wrong on a DFS fade, it can crush your ROI for the week. Not necessarily the case in best ball and here’s why.

First of all, most players are going to be 100% drafted/owned or near that. Ownership to the playoffs or best ball Finals is very unique because it means that a low-owned player was actually injured or underperformed his ADP. We’ll get more into that next week.

HOW FADES WORK IN BEST BALL:

If you make a big fade and you’re wrong on that player, you’re lineup still isn’t dead. You just need one or both of these things to happen:

-That player you faded has at least one poor performance in the playoffs, especially relative to his ADP.

-More importantly, you just need to be right/have the right combo on your strong stands. A strong lineup of yours can still compete even with a player you faded that has outperformed their ADP and/or had great best ball playoffs.

I basically faded both Jalen Hurts and Josh Jacobs last year. Really makes you want to take best ball advice from me right? But in all seriousness, I still had a 27% advance rate to playoffs and had a team in Underdog’s BBM3 Finals.  On Underdog and DraftKings it didn’t hurt me because Jacobs had a weak playoffs overall (especially quarter & semi-finals) and Hurts was injured and out for the semi-finals and finals. Also, my players that I had high exposure to performed well in playoffs, especially on my Underdog BBM3 Finals team.

Note:  You can’t really miss on players that vastly outperform their ADP in the Drafters’ best ball since its truly season-long weeks 1-17 cumulative scoring. But on Underdog Fantasy and DraftKings, you can make bigger stands and risky fades if you feel it can give you an edge. There just needs to be a reason for your fades that makes sense when you’re drafting.

 

REASONS TO FADE IN BEST BALL:

-Player is being overvalued (ADP is too high) and you strongly feel he will underperform his ADP

-Weak offense (especially on Underdog Fantasy when touchdown hunting)

-Poor coaching or supporting cast (offensive line for QBs and RBs for example)

-Difficult strength of schedule/match-ups

-Difficult playoff schedule or bad conditions (potential bad winter weather)

-Injury risks

-Suspension not worth ADP

You can read more about my stance on fading in best ball here. Our fades are going to vary depending on our stands on teams and players and that’s fine. Just make sure there is context or reasoning to fading a player best ball. Check out my best ball fades (or very underweight) through mid-July here. 

Similar to DFS, even if we max enter, we don’t want to draft everyone. So don’t be afraid to make stands or fades in best ball. Look for more on ownership and exposures in best ball in upcoming weekly strategy articles.

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