Best Ball Strategy Series: Exposures

In my strategy article last week, I discussed fading in best ball. Yes, I talk about the importance of diversifying your portfolio for both players and strategies/lineup constructions. I don’t want all the exact same builds and few player stacks. But just like in DFS, in best ball we can’t play everyone. So we need to make fades/go underweight on players that we don’t think will outperform their ADP.

On the contrast, for players that we think will outperform their ADP, we want to go overweight and have a high exposure to those players. If you feel a player could massively outperform their ADP, then go massively overweight on that player.

The name of the game in best ball is to be right more often on your player stands (overweight/underweight/fade) in regards to how that player finishes vs. their ADP. Obviously, best ball is a lot more nuanced than just that. But if you’re successful more often on your player stands, it will lead to a profitable and fun best ball season.

 

EXPOSURE NUANCES:

-It’s easier to get higher exposure to mid and late-round players. This is because these players will fall to you naturally more often. So if you look at your top exposed players and they are QB2-3s and later round RBs/WRs/TEs, don’t worry, that is normal.

-If you want to make a bigger stand on the earlier round player, first if it’s a player you project to rise (say 4th round to 2nd round), then scoop as many shares as possible at their discounted price.

Then you may need to reach on 1st and 2nd round players if you want very high exposure to them.

Example:  You want as much Cooper Kupp as possible. Kupp currently goes 3rd-5th in most drafts. If you wanted to go overweight, then you would take Kupp a lot even when you get the 1st or 2nd pick too. That means you’re lowering your exposure to Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase. But if Kupp is the top receiver you need both in the regular season and playoffs to win it all, then that doesn’t sound so crazy.

-Just make sure you have good reasoning for all your heavy-weight early exposures. Ultimately, it’s these first few round players that will determine your success in best ball. So yes, high exposures are a risk. And it really depends on your risk tolerance. But if you’re right about your high exposures, it can pay off big time.

-Remember if your personal ranking is higher on a player, it’s fine to take them above ADP. They just have to outperform the position you took them at.

Example:  I am high on QB Jared Goff and the Lions’ offense. I am fine taking Goff well above his ADP, because I believe he’ll finish as a top 10 QB and have a strong best ball playoffs. If I’m right, then going overweight on Goff will be the right call.

-Check your exposures weekly to make sure you don’t want to make adjustments moving forward. Maybe you want to back off a player’s exposure or maybe you realize you want a lot more shares. Checking in weekly will help you stay on top to make sure in the end you get the exposures you are happy with for this season.

 

SUMMARY:

Remember, no one can tell you you’re right or wrong on your player exposures going into the season. Because we won’t know until the end of week 17 on which players we truly wanted to be overweight or be underweight or fade. So have a process and always check in with your exposures each week to see if you want to make adjustments to your exposures.

Article produced by Megs – Use code SUMMER33 for 33% off your first month at RunPureSports

OUR PARTNERSHIPS

UNDERDOGCLICK HERE – USE CODE RUNPURE

YOUTUBESubscribe Here!

 

 

OTHER GREAT ARTICLES

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *