When is the best time to draft in best ball? My answer:Â every month throughout the late spring and summer. Every month has its own unique edges and advantages. But let’s talk about what is the edge to drafting from now until training camps begin.
We are undoubtedly taking on a lot more risk now than drafting in July, August or even earlier September when we have more information. The purpose of drafting a portion of your best ball portfolio now is to get closing ADP line value, especially in the big lotto tournaments.
I just taped a short video on RunPure YouTube about this topic. But the basic idea is we want to speculate or make stands on late-round players that currently have murky situations. Once their situations become clear and we get camp news, their ADP could potentially go up, even skyrocket in some cases.
These situations include players coming back from injury, players who are still free agents, and of course rookies. Also, you can make stands on quarterbacks that the field is not confident will be a year-long starters.
Here are some examples from last year where you got insane ADP value if you drafted these players early:
-Players coming back from injury – Chris Godwin
-Rookies – Kenneth Walker, Dameon Pierce, Chris Olave, and Garrett Wilson
-Starting Late-Round QB Fliers – Geno Smith
The key is draft the right late-round players to truly get ADP value and useful roster spots. Easier than it sounds. But if it fails, it is a late-round pick. If it works, you’ll get paid off in a big way with a player that will end up going much earlier in drafts later this summer.
So who am I targeting in these categories for this best ball season?
-Current Free Agents – RB Ezekiel Elliott, RB Leonard Fournette
-Players coming back from injury – WR Tim Patrick
-Rookies – RB Devon Achane, WR Rashee Rice, WR Jayden Reed, WR Jordan Addison, and basically all the tight ends drafted early (Dalton Kinkaid, Sam LaPorta, Michael Mayer, and Luke Schoonmaker)
-Starting Late-Round QB Fliers –Â Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder, and Brock Purdy
If Elliott and Fournette land in a good spot, I believe they can still produce, especially at their current ADPs. Tim Patrick is basically free at the end of drafts and he has been cleared to do everything. Some of the rookies I listed are already gaining ADP steam, but I believe all the ones listed go fly up draft boards higher once training camp and preseason start.
For the QBs, I know the Howell pick seems like a total homer pick if you know me and my Washington fandom. But I’ve paid close attention to Washington’s offseason reports, and it’s Howell’s job to lose. The organization and coaches seem to be confidently backing him, yet the market seems to question that. I’m high on the Atlanta offense, so I like taking shots on Ridder. And finally, will it be Brock Purdy or Trey Lance? I believe that IF Purdy is healthy, he will be the 49ers’ starter. The coaches and his teammates seem very confident in him. And why shouldn’t they be? He was one win away from starting in the Super Bowl. Purdy is expected to begin throwing next week and it sounds like the 49ers are optimistic he’ll be healthy to start the season.
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