Best Ball Stock Report: July 5

Each Tuesday, I will analyze the Underdog Fantasy ADP Report which shows the biggest risers and fallers from the last week. I’m highlighting the 20 biggest risers and 20 biggest fallers in ADP this past week. Then I will list the players I am most bullish (continuing to buy) and bearish (not buying).

The Bullish and Bearish players listed could be from both the biggest risers and biggest fallers of the week on Underdog. For Risers, you could look at it two ways. Either the price is now too steep and I’m going to hold off buying more or I’m going to get more shares because I think the price will go up further throughout best ball season. For Fallers, the same applies that you may think they’ll continue to fall so you’ll wait, or you may think this is a good buy spot.

I’m not going to make a position on every player in risers and fallers list. But I’ll make a position on the players that I have the strongest stance on this week.

Hopefully, this helps your best ball draft process this summer as ADPs evolve.

 

BIGGEST RISERS:

(Biggest ADP change starting from the top)

Name:Pos:Team:Current ADP:ADP Change:
Tim PatrickWRDEN187.58-15.22
DeVante ParkerWRNE205.49-9.45
Brock PurdyQBSF174.27-6.92
Kenneth GainwellRBPHI171.57-5.62
Taysom HillTENO161.55-5.02
Parris CampbellWRNYG175.76-4.8
Pierre StrongRBNE199.31-4.73
Romeo DoubsWRGB122.58-4.03
Cordarrelle PattersonRBATL204.36-3.35
Gus EdwardsRBBAL185.24-3.25
Mike GesickiTENE184.29-3.01
Mac JonesQBNE198.94-2.93
Trey McBrideTEARI201.38-2.71
Tua TagovailoaQBMIA91.94-2.66
Greg DulcichTEDEN134.05-2.64
Antonio GibsonRBWAS101.14-2.48
Desmond RidderQBATL204.54-2.31
Cam AkersRBLAR69.58-2.26
Samaje PerineRBDEN104.65-2.21
Kyler MurrayQBARI165.35-2.14

 

 

 

FALLERS:

(Biggest ADP change starting from the bottom)

Name:Pos:Team:Current ADP:ADP Change:
DJ CharkWRCAR157.652.04
Alec PierceWRIND149.392.05
Ty ChandlerRBMIN194.762.17
Hunter RenfrowWRLV188.852.46
Curtis SamuelWRWAS173.812.51
Jayden ReedWRGB164.472.68
Kareem HuntRB208.552.71
Michael GallupWRDAL132.032.78
JuJu Smith-SchusterWRNE109.742.88
Raheem MostertRBMIA170.282.89
Tyler ConklinTENYJ190.083.17
Rashee RiceWRKC143.973.39
Juwan JohnsonTENO168.553.7
Trey LanceQBSF211.073.75
Mecole HardmanWRNYJ207.214.35
John MetchieWRHOU179.954.39
Chase ClaypoolWRCHI206.765.47
Josh DownsWRIND210.37.39
Wan’Dale RobinsonWRNYG197.459.76
Jalin HyattWRNYG190.4711.99

 

STILL BULLISH:

*These players have been on my bullish list, and remain on my bullish list despite their price change (rise or fall) for the reasons below.

-QB Brock Purdy – The continued price rise shows that market knows Purdy will be the 49ers’ starting QB. The 49ers were in the top 10 in most offensive statistical categories last year and I think the offense could be even better this year. So this is still too cheap access to this top offense.

-RB Kenneth Gainwell – Another one that stays on the bullish list even though his price continues to rise.  I have a ton of shares of Gainwell, but I still think he’s too cheap.

-RB Ty Chandler – This is one late-round handcuff I’m interested in, especially with his price falling a bit. Mattison has never had a season-long bell cow role, so I think Chandler will have a nice RB2 role.

-WR Rashee Rice – Pinning down a Chiefs’ receiving option is hard outside of Kelce, but I like the rookie here if his price is falling. Hopefully, he can get involved early and play that JuJu slot role.

-WR Tim Patrick – His price is starting to skyrocket, but it’s not too high for me yet. I think if he continues to show his recovery is going well, his price will rise more each month. I have a lot of Patrick shares already because I’m bullish on a Sean Payton-led Broncos offense and this is cheap exposure to that.

BULLISH:

-RB Gus Edwards –  I have been drafting Edwards as one of my last RBs a ton already and a slight price increase is not going to slow me down.

-QB Tua Tagovailoa – It does not surprise me to see Tua slowly creeping up. When healthy last year, he put up monster numbers and was a great best ball QB. I know the “when healthy part” is what scares people. I’m not scared off and love this offense. Maybe just draft 2 other QBs with him if you are concerned about his health.

-QB Desmond Ridder – The Falcons offense could make a big leap this year. With Kyle Pitts back, Drake London’s 2nd year, and adding RB Bijan Robinson, this offense has the pieces in place to put up points. Oh yeah, they also have one of the NFL’s easiest schedules this season.

-WR Jayden Reed – Not sure why Reed is falling. But he is one of my favorite later-round receivers to target. I think he has a very strong chance to make an impact for the Packers’ in the slot as a rookie.

-WR Michael Gallup – Maybe Gallup’s price is going down because people are just heavier on CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks. Yes, Gallup is the 3rd WR in this offense. But this should be a top 5-10 offense and one that I want to have heavy exposure to. I already have a ton of Gallup shares, and I want plenty more, especially if his price is falling. He’s in an offense I love and a perfect spike week/best ball type receiver at that price.

 

 

STILL BEARISH:

*These players have been on my bearish list, and remain on my bearish list despite their price change (rise or fall) for the reasons below.

-WR Parris Campbell – The Giants’ WR room is so crowded, I’m not going to draft a receiver who is up 17 spots. If I’m drafting a Giants’ receiver, I’ll take the discount with Darius Slayton or a slightly elevated price in Isaiah Hodgins.

-WR Jalin Hyatt & Wandale Robinson – See above. I think these two Giants’ receivers are falling for good reason. Such a crowded room and I’d rather follow the talent of Hodgins and the talent/salary of Slayton playing on the outside. Hyatt is one rookie receiver that I don’t think is in a strong position to break out his rookie year.

-QB Trey Lance – Obviously if I think Purdy is QB1 in San Francisco, then I’m fading Lance.

-WR Romeo Doubs – He rose massively last preseason and didn’t do much his rookie year. I really like rookie Packers’ WR Jayden Reed and would rather draft him for a better price.

-RB Pierre Strong – I get that now he’s in line to have the RB2 role. But this is not a handcuff I’m interested in at a rising price.

-RB Cordarrelle Patterson – I know he can be used as a weapon, but I’m not interested in an aging Patterson with a stud in Bijan Robinson and a great 2nd RB in Tyler Allegier in front of him.

BEARISH:

-WR DeVante Parker – The rise for Parker is obviously due to the new contract, but it is an incentive-based contract and I still think DeAndre Hopkins could sign in New England.

-QB Kyler Murray – I have been out on Murray all draft season and I especially feel the same with his price rising. He has a massive range of outcomes this season and I wonder how many games he actually plays. Even if he is on the field a lot, he’s a rushing QB recovering from a torn ACL in December, with a new HC/offense, and with one of the worst rosters in the NFL.

-WR Josh Downs – Another player I have not drafted and have no interest in even as his price decreases. I’m bearish on QB Anthony Richardson as a passer, especially in the timing routes and short and intermediate throws that Downs would be a target for Richardson underneath.

-RB Samaje Perine – I still am concerned that Denver adds a veteran RB to the mix and I like other RBs a lot better in that range where Perine is being drafted.

 

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