Best Ball Stock Report: July 18

Each Tuesday, I will analyze the Underdog Fantasy ADP Report which shows the biggest risers and fallers from the last week. I’m highlighting the 20 biggest risers and 20 biggest fallers in ADP this past week. Then I will list the players I am most bullish (continuing to buy) and bearish (not buying).

The Bullish and Bearish players listed could be from both the biggest risers and biggest fallers of the week on Underdog. For Risers, you could look at it two ways. Either the price is now too steep and I’m going to hold off buying more or I’m going to get more shares because I think the price will go up further throughout best ball season. For Fallers, the same applies that you may think they’ll continue to fall so you’ll wait, or you may think this is a good buy spot.

I’m not going to make a position on every player in risers and fallers list. But I’ll make a position on the players that I have the strongest stance on this week.

Hopefully, this helps your best ball draft process this summer as ADPs evolve.

 

BIGGEST RISERS:

(Biggest ADP change starting from the TOP)

Name:Pos:Team:Current ADP:ADP Change:
Kyler MurrayQBARI153.15-9.25
Alvin KamaraRBNO94.55-7.39
Nico CollinsWRHOU119.72-6.23
Tim PatrickWRDEN170.37-6.19
Skyy MooreWRKC106.16-5.3
Jeff WilsonRBMIA182.33-3.69
DeVante ParkerWRNE192.45-3.52
Clyde Edwards-HelaireRBKC204.53-3.46
Gerald EverettTELAC150.28-3.22
K.J. OsbornWRMIN146.24-3.19
Diontae JohnsonWRPIT55.88-3
Javonte WilliamsRBDEN90.32-2.43
Zamir WhiteRBLV208.43-2.38
Rashaad PennyRBPHI110.47-2.31
Gabe DavisWRBUF75.71-2.06
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWRKC153.26-2.03
Trey McBrideTEARI199.49-2
Greg DulcichTEDEN130.9-1.96
Marvin MimsWRDEN159.36-1.88
Cordarrelle PattersonRBATL201.69-1.73

 

BIGGEST FALLERS:

(Biggest ADP change starting from the BOTTOM):

Name:Pos:Team:Current ADP:ADP Change:
C.J. StroudQBHOU190.392.09
Derek CarrQBNO148.052.11
Irv SmithTECIN155.812.12
Gus EdwardsRBBAL186.92.13
Samaje PerineRBDEN105.522.22
Dalvin CookRB89.862.35
Kendre MillerRBNO140.062.7
Bryce YoungQBCAR178.712.75
Mike GesickiTENE186.152.8
Anthony RichardsonQBIND103.42.83
Chase BrownRBCIN193.733.03
Treylon BurksWRTEN70.793.16
JuJu Smith-SchusterWRNE117.23.27
Jerome FordRBCLE164.963.49
Tyquan ThorntonWRNE174.813.51
Luke MusgraveTEGB205.273.77
Mac JonesQBNE203.34.04
Isiah PachecoRBKC86.564.23
Pierre StrongRBNE207.755.1
Jordan LoveQBGB160.846.15

 

STILL BULLISH:

*These players have been on my bullish list, and remain on my bullish list despite their price change (rise or fall) for the reasons below.

-WR Tim Patrick – His price continues to skyrocket, but the 170s is not too high for me yet. I think if he continues to show his recovery is going well, his price will rise more each month. I have a lot of Patrick shares already because I’m bullish on a Sean Payton-led Broncos offense and this is cheap exposure to that.

 

BULLISH:

-Most of the Broncos (TE Greg Dulchich and RB Javonte Williams) – Like the Rams last week, the Broncos are rising, and for good reason. They should be in shootouts against their foes in the AFC West and AFC East. I am very bullish on HC Sean Payton turning this offense around. That means a huge benefit for Tim Patrick, Greg Dulchich, and Javonte Williams (when 100%). I still think these guys could vastly outperform these ADPs.

-RB Clyde Edwards-Elaire – Never thought I’d be in on CEH, but as a last RB in a zero RB type build, I don’t mind some shots.

-RB Rashaad Penny – Swift is too rich for me, so I’ve been invested in Penny and Gainwell for the Eagles.

-TE Gerald Everett – Love the Chargers offense as a whole so I have a lot of their TE1 whether I grab Justin Herbert or not.

-TE Irv Smith – If Big Irv’s pice is starting to fall, I am very interested.

-RB Gus Edwards – Not sure why his price is falling, but I have high exposure to Edwards as RB2 in Baltimore that still gets worked in and is very efficient. I’ll take more shares with the price dropping.

-RB Jerome Ford – Should be the true RB2 in Cleveland this year. Even if its not the Kareem Hunt role, I don’t think its a pure handcuff either so this is a good price.

-TE Luke Musgrave – I have been very bullish on Musgrave most of best ball season. He was rising for awhile but I’ll happily take more shares if he’s falling.

 

 

STILL BEARISH:

*These players have been on my bearish list, and remain on my bearish list despite their price change (rise or fall) for the reasons below.

-WR DeVante Parker – The rise for Parker is obviously due to the new contract, but it is an incentive-based contract and I like other receivers around him more.

-QB Kyler Murray – I have been out on Murray all draft season and I especially feel the same with his price rising. He has a massive range of outcomes this season and I wonder how many games he actually plays. Even if he is on the field a lot, he’s a rushing QB recovering from a torn ACL in December, with a new HC/offense, and with one of the worst rosters in the NFL.

BEARISH:

-RB Alvin Kamara – I still think Kamara will have some suspension, was not impressed with his play last year and now he’s in a 3-man backfield.

-WR Marvin Mims – If I’m bullish on Tim Patrick, it makes sense I’m bearish on Marvin Mims. The lone Broncos player I’m not in on this season.

-QB Anthony Richardson – We looked at 12 years of rookie QB data on Fanspeak.com and the results aren’t optimistic. Especially at Richardson’s price. Even with it coming down, I have no interest.

-Chiefs – WRs Sky Moore (rising) and Marques Valdes-Scantling (rising) and Isiah Pacheco (falling) – It feels weird to be out on Chiefs, the league’s most powerful offense. But I really just like the elite Chiefs with Mahomes like Kelce or Toney. Or I’ll take shots on the rookie Rice, McKinnon or very late CEH.

-WR Treylon Burks – I wasn’t interested in Burks before the DeAndre Hopkins signing, and I’m definitely not interested now.

-RB Cordarelle Patterson – Even late in the draft, I have no interest in this aging gimmicky back.

 

STILL DECIDING:

-RB Zamir White – I do not think Josh Jacobs (and Saquon Barkley) sit out this season. But if they push it to the start of the season, perhaps they start slow and White gets a little more involved. I generally am still in on Jacobs and Barkely but wonder if I should take a couple late shots on White.

-WR Nico Collins – I like Collins a lot as a receiver and he could be the #1 option in Houston. I wish I had drafted more of him before his price got out of control. Because this price is getting a little steep for a Texans’ receiver.

-WR Diontae Johnson – I have drafted Johnson a lot so far because I like him and this Steelers’ offense this season (easier schedule, improved offensive line, offensive growth with Pickett). But now his price is getting pretty steep. So I’ll probably just take him more on full-point PPR sites or if he falls in a range where I don’t like anyone else. I am happy I have a love of DJ shares!

-Other Patriots – now that Hopkins is not going there I don’t mind some late shots on Mac Jones and Tyquan Thorton, but I don’t want a lot of exposure to the Pats. I’m hoping Rhamondre Stevenson stays the true RB1 (no Dalvin Cook) and I also like a last round TE Hunter Henry. That’s about it.

 

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