Best Ball Stock Report: July 11

Each Tuesday, I will analyze the Underdog Fantasy ADP Report which shows the biggest risers and fallers from the last week. I’m highlighting the 20 biggest risers and 20 biggest fallers in ADP this past week. Then I will list the players I am most bullish (continuing to buy) and bearish (not buying).

The Bullish and Bearish players listed could be from both the biggest risers and biggest fallers of the week on Underdog. For Risers, you could look at it two ways. Either the price is now too steep and I’m going to hold off buying more or I’m going to get more shares because I think the price will go up further throughout best ball season. For Fallers, the same applies that you may think they’ll continue to fall so you’ll wait, or you may think this is a good buy spot.

I’m not going to make a position on every player in risers and fallers list. But I’ll make a position on the players that I have the strongest stance on this week.

Hopefully, this helps your best ball draft process this summer as ADPs evolve.

 

BIGGEST RISERS:

(Biggest ADP change starting from the BOTTOM)

Name:Pos:Team:Current ADP:ADP Change:
James ConnerRBARI85.35-2.23
Cam AkersRBLAR67-2.58
Antonio GibsonRBWAS98.44-2.7
Robert WoodsWRHOU203.55-2.72
Chigoziem OkonkwoTETEN126.91-2.73
Van JeffersonWRLAR138.67-2.8
Brock PurdyQBSF171.44-2.83
Tyler HigbeeTELAR144.26-2.84
Rashid ShaheedWRNO163.38-2.89
Kyler MurrayQBARI162.4-2.95
Matthew StaffordQBLAR150.65-2.96
David MontgomeryRBDET79.1-3.3
Romeo DoubsWRGB119.15-3.43
Kenneth GainwellRBPHI167.89-3.68
Terrace MarshallWRCAR206.7-4
Diontae JohnsonWRPIT58.88-4.02
Taysom HillTENO157.53-4.02
Nico CollinsWRHOU125.95-5.94
DeVante ParkerWRNE195.97-9.52
Tim PatrickWRDEN176.56-11.02

 

 

BIGGEST FALLERS:

(Biggest ADP change starting from the TOP)

Name:Pos:Team:Current ADP:ADP Change:
Tyquan ThorntonWRNE171.37.3
Jalin HyattWRNYG195.475
Jayden ReedWRGB168.824.35
JuJu Smith-SchusterWRNE113.934.19
Chase ClaypoolWRCHI210.413.65
Michael PittmanWRIND66.133.6
Michael GallupWRDAL135.593.56
Alec PierceWRIND152.863.47
Pierre StrongRBNE202.653.34
Dalton KincaidTEBUF132.123.32
Dalvin CookRB87.512.84
Leonard FournetteRB200.312.75
DeAndre HopkinsWR46.032.69
Wan’Dale RobinsonWRNYG200.082.63
John MetchieWRHOU182.442.49
Juwan JohnsonTENO170.932.38
Jakobi MeyersWRLV123.972.28
Chuba HubbardRBCAR183.412.2
Raheem MostertRBMIA172.332.05
Damien HarrisRBBUF116.521.99

 

STILL BULLISH:

*These players have been on my bullish list, and remain on my bullish list despite their price change (rise or fall) for the reasons below.

-QB Brock Purdy – The continued price rise shows that market knows Purdy will be the 49ers’ starting QB. The 49ers were in the top 10 in most offensive statistical categories last year and I think the offense could be even better this year. So this is still too cheap access to this top offense.

-RB Kenneth Gainwell – Another one that stays on the bullish list even though his price continues to rise.  I have a ton of shares of Gainwell, but I still think he’s too cheap.

-WR Tim Patrick – His price continues to skyrocket, but it’s not too high for me yet. I think if he continues to show his recovery is going well, his price will rise more each month. I have a lot of Patrick shares already because I’m bullish on a Sean Payton-led Broncos offense and this is cheap exposure to that.

-WR Jayden Reed – Not sure why Reed is falling. But he is one of my favorite later-round receivers to target. I think he has a very strong chance to make an impact for the Packers’ in the slot as a rookie.

-WR Michael Gallup – Maybe Gallup’s price is going down because people are just heavier on CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks. Yes, Gallup is the 3rd WR in this offense. But this should be a top 5-10 offense and one that I want to have heavy exposure to. I already have a ton of Gallup shares, and I want plenty more, especially if his price is falling. He’s in an offense I love and a perfect spike week/best ball type receiver at that price.

 

BULLISH:

-All the Rams (Matthew Stafford, Cam Akers, Tyler Higbee and Van Jefferson) – Because drafters now feel more confident about Stafford and Kupp’s health, the market has realized that the Rams were going way too low. I have been more and more interested in drafting Rams as these prices as the draft season has progressed. And I’ll continue to draft them, as I think their prices are still too low.

-David Montgomery – I have been on the Lions and Monty since the beginning of draft season and I’m continuing to stack up the Lions offense as much as I can. Great offense, tons of dome games, and a great playoff schedule…I am fully invested in the Lions putting up a lot of points this season.

-Dalton Kinkaid – His price has cooled since the draft, but that’s just the market adjusting. I like this price for Kinkaid and I’ve drafted him all best ball season. I think he plays a big Cole Beasley slot role for the Bills. To have a red zone target in the Bills’ offense is something I’m very interested in, especially on Underdog.

-Damien Harris – There were some reports recently that Harris we’ll compete with Latavius Murray for the bruising goal line back role in the Bills’ offense. Harris is seven years younger than Murray and has shown his upside with the Patriots. I think he’s the goalline back for the Bills and I’ll continue to draft him as that, especially at a depressed price.

-Free Agents (Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette, DeAndre Hopkins) – Once these free agents land, they will most likely all go up. So I’ll take them now and probably cool on drafting them after their price rises. I Cook the most and drafting him right now. Fournette and Hopkins I’m just drafting some at this point. It really depends on how you think of them as a player and their potential landing spot if you’re in or out on these current free agents.

 

 

 

STILL BEARISH:

*These players have been on my bearish list, and remain on my bearish list despite their price change (rise or fall) for the reasons below.

-WR Jalin Hyatt and WanDale Robinson – The Giants have such a crowded receiver room and I’d rather follow the talent of Hodgins and the talent/salary of Slayton playing on the outside. I think the Giants’ rookie receiver continues to fall for good reason. Hyatt is one rookie receiver that I don’t think is in a strong position to break out his rookie year.

-WR DeVante Parker – The rise for Parker is obviously due to the new contract, but it is an incentive-based contract and I still think DeAndre Hopkins could sign in New England.

-QB Kyler Murray – I have been out on Murray all draft season and I especially feel the same with his price rising. He has a massive range of outcomes this season and I wonder how many games he actually plays. Even if he is on the field a lot, he’s a rushing QB recovering from a torn ACL in December, with a new HC/offense, and with one of the worst rosters in the NFL.

BEARISH:

-John Metchie – Even though his price is falling a bit, I like Nico Collins and Robert Woods (on Risers list) in the Houston offense much better. When I’m targeting 3rd receivers in an offense, I target top offenses.

-Chigoziem Okonkwo – I think Chig has a ton of talent and I liked rostering him in DFS last year. But outside of Derrick Henry, I’m not investing in the Titans’ offense, especially at a rising price.

 

 

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